Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025
Auburn at Texas A&M, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
Texas A&M beat Auburn 16–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas A&M wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Texas A&M was a 66% favorite.
Final
 Auburn Tigers | 10 |
|---|---|
 Texas A&M Aggies | 16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Texas A&M about even · −5 Auburn
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Auburn wins 1, Texas A&M wins 9.
- 1 AUB 17 TA&M 9
- 2 AUB 0 TA&M 3
- 3 AUB 17 TA&M 26
- 4 AUB 3 TA&M 16
- 5 AUB 7 TA&M 23
- 6 AUB 0 TA&M 19
- 7 AUB 3 TA&M 25
- 8 AUB 0 TA&M 25
- 9 AUB 0 TA&M 30
- 10 AUB 0 TA&M 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Auburn wins 5% of them, Texas A&M 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texas A&M by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Auburn by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Auburn by 9–16 | 1.3% |
| Auburn by 1–8 | 3.7% |
| Level after regulation | 0.6% |
| Texas A&M by 1–8 | 10.3% |
| Texas A&M by 9–16 | 16.8% |
| Texas A&M by 17+ | 67.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- A. McPherson, 32 yds made · 87% expected
- R. Bond, 33 yds made · 85% expected
- R. Bond, 49 yds made · 58% expected
- R. Bond, 50 yds missed · 56% expected
- R. Bond, 49 yds missed · 58% expected
- R. Bond, 44 yds made · 66% expected
Penalties: Auburn 10 for 69 yards, Texas A&M 11 for 104 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:40 | False Start on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TA&M +0.8 pts |
| Q1 6:27 | False Start on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TA&M +0.7 pts |
| Q1 3:54 | Holding on Texas A&M, 10 yards | +1% AUB +0.6 pts |
| Q1 2:42 | False Start on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% AUB +0.4 pts |
| Q2 14:40 | Pass Interference on Auburn, 2 yards | +1% TA&M +0.8 pts |
| Q2 12:35 | Holding on Auburn, 10 yards | +1% TA&M +0.6 pts |
| Q2 12:00 | Personal Foul on Texas A&M, 14 yards | +3% AUB +1.6 pts |
| Q2 11:30 | False Start on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TA&M +0.4 pts |
| Q2 10:15 | Pass Interference on Auburn, 12 yards | +3% TA&M +1.5 pts |
| Q2 8:31 | Holding on Texas A&M, 10 yards | +1% AUB +0.6 pts |
| Q2 6:22 | Holding on Auburn, 10 yards | +1% TA&M +0.6 pts |
| Q2 4:04 | Holding on Texas A&M, 10 yards | +1% AUB +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:59 | False Start on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TA&M +0.2 pts |
| Q3 12:36 | Holding on Texas A&M, 10 yards | +1% AUB +0.6 pts |
| Q3 12:14 | Intentional Grounding on Texas A&M, 0 yards | 0% AUB 0.0 pts |
| Q3 11:49 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Texas A&M, 15 yards | +2% AUB +1.4 pts |
| Q3 3:54 | Holding on Texas A&M, 10 yards | +3% AUB +1.3 pts |
| Q3 1:49 | Illegal Shift on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TA&M +0.3 pts |
| Q3 0:33 | Holding on Auburn, 10 yards | +1% TA&M +0.6 pts |
| Q4 2:56 | Ineligible Downfield on Texas A&M, 5 yards | +1% AUB +0.3 pts |
| Q4 0:59 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Texas A&M, 15 yards | 0% AUB +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Texas A&M’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 12:00 | Personal Foul on Texas A&M, 14 yardsJudgment calls | +3% AUB | AUB: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 9:58 | Texas A&M converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +5% TA&M | TA&M: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 3:10 | Texas A&M converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +4% TA&M | TA&M: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 10:53 | R. Bond missed a 49-yard field goalKicks · 58% expected for him, 13 of 22 from 45+ before | +3% AUB | TA&M: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 7:53 | Texas A&M was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +3% AUB | TA&M: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 5:49 | Auburn was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +3% TA&M | AUB: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 2:50 | Texas A&M was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +3% AUB | TA&M: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 2:42 | R. Bond made a 44-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him | +5% TA&M | TA&M: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Auburn 78% · Texas A&M 22%
- Final margin
- Texas A&M by 6
- Luck in points
- 11.4 for Texas A&M
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Auburn by 5.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Auburn 5% · Texas A&M 95% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
Auburn · 
Texas A&M
More from Week 5 2025
- Alabama at Georgia ALA 24–21 · replay 54% for the winner
- LSU at Ole Miss MISS 24–19 · replay 66% for the winner
- Tennessee at Mississippi State TENN 41–34 · replay 77% for the winner
- Kentucky at South Carolina SC 35–13 · replay 95% for the winner
- Utah State at Vanderbilt VAN 55–35 · replay 100% for the winner
- Notre Dame at Arkansas ND 56–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Missouri MIZ 42–6 · replay 100% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Air Force HAW 44–35 · replay 5% for the winner
- Louisville at Pittsburgh LOU 34–27 · replay 11% for the winner
- California at Boston College CAL 28–24 · replay 28% for the winner
- Marshall at Louisiana UL 54–51 · replay 29% for the winner
- Cincinnati at Kansas CIN 37–34 · replay 30% for the winner