luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025

Tennessee at Mississippi State, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?

Tennessee beat Mississippi State 41–34, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.

Before kickoff Tennessee was a 69% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:29 left): Return touchdown by Tennessee, worth 59 points of win probability to Tennessee.

Final (OT)

Tennessee Volunteers 41
Mississippi State Bulldogs 34

September 27, 2025 · Davis Wade Stadium · Closing line: Tennessee −7.5

Luck index +23 Tennessee about even · −23 Mississippi State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Tennessee wins 8, Mississippi State wins 2.

  1. 1 TENN 41 MSST 3
  2. 2 TENN 47 MSST 19
  3. 3 TENN 41 MSST 20
  4. 4 TENN 24 MSST 7
  5. 5 TENN 35 MSST 20
  6. 6 TENN 28 MSST 17
  7. 7 TENN 24 MSST 17
  8. 8 TENN 24 MSST 21
  9. 9 TENN 23 MSST 26
  10. 10 TENN 24 MSST 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Tennessee wins 77% of them, Mississippi State 23%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Tennessee by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Tennessee by 17+35.4%
Tennessee by 9–1619.9%
Tennessee by 1–818.3%
Level after regulation4.0%
Mississippi State by 1–812.0%
Mississippi State by 9–166.3%
Mississippi State by 17+4.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.0 points to Mississippi State: the final margin was Tennessee by 7, without the luck Tennessee by 13. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • M. Gilbert, 38 yds made · 78% expected
  • K. Ferrie, 51 yds made · 54% expected
  • M. Gilbert, 47 yds missed · 61% expected
  • M. Gilbert, 27 yds made · 91% expected
  • K. Ferrie, 42 yds missed · 70% expected
  • K. Ferrie, 38 yds made · 77% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Tennessee 7 for 81 yards, Mississippi State 6 for 71 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:01 Personal Foul on Tennessee, 5 yards +2% MSST +0.8 pts
Q1 11:07 Pass Interference on Mississippi State, 11 yards +2% TENN +1.2 pts
Q1 2:51 Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yards +1% TENN +0.6 pts
Q2 8:35 Unnecessary Roughness on Mississippi State, 15 yards +3% TENN +1.3 pts
Q2 8:17 Roughing the Passer on Mississippi State, 15 yards +4% TENN +1.6 pts
Q2 3:06 False Start on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MSST +1.1 pts
Q3 14:19 Personal Foul on Mississippi State, 15 yards +4% TENN +1.6 pts
Q3 8:35 Pass Interference on Tennessee, 15 yards +3% MSST +1.0 pts
Q3 8:30 Illegal Shift on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TENN +0.5 pts
Q3 4:49 Personal Foul on Tennessee, 21 yards 0% MSST 0.0 pts
Q3 4:49 Personal Foul on Tennessee, 15 yards +20% MSST +6.7 pts
Q3 3:01 Pass Interference on Tennessee, 15 yards, wiping out the play +26% MSST +6.6 pts
Q4 2:38 False Start on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap +6% MSST +1.1 pts

When it happened

Mississippi State’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 88%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Mississippi State was ahead in it, below while Tennessee was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:19 Return touchdown by TennesseeSpecial teams +12% TENN TENN: Punt
2 Q3 10:17 Mississippi State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +8% MSST MSST: Missed field goal
3 Q3 4:49 Personal Foul on Tennessee, 21 yardsJudgment callsPersonal Foul on Tennessee, 15 yardsJudgment calls +20% MSST MSST: Touchdown
4 Q3 3:01 Pass Interference on Tennessee, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +26% MSST MSST: Field goal
5 Q4 14:09 Mississippi State converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +16% MSST MSST: Field goal
6 Q4 13:29 Mississippi State fumbled and Tennessee recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by TennesseeSpecial teams +59% TENN MSST: Field goal
7 Q4 4:51 Tennessee converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +12% TENN TENN: Touchdown
8 Q4 2:00 Tennessee converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +12% TENN TENN: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Tennessee 97% · Mississippi State 3%

Final margin
Tennessee by 7
Luck in points
6.0 for Mississippi State
Luck-adjusted margin
Tennessee by 13.0
Replay with same day's form
Tennessee 77% · Mississippi State 23% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · Tennessee · Mississippi State

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