Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025
San Diego State at Northern Illinois, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
San Diego State beat Northern Illinois 6–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, San Diego State wins 8 of 10. Northern Illinois had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 11 points of win probability to Northern Illinois.
Before kickoff San Diego State was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:48 left): Personal Foul on San Diego State, 15 yards, wiping out the play, worth 31 points of win probability to Northern Illinois.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +18 San Diego State about even · −18 Northern Illinois
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. San Diego State wins 8, Northern Illinois wins 2.
- 1 SDSU 30 NIU 0
- 2 SDSU 28 NIU 7
- 3 SDSU 17 NIU 0
- 4 SDSU 14 NIU 0
- 5 SDSU 21 NIU 9
- 6 SDSU 10 NIU 0
- 7 SDSU 17 NIU 10
- 8 SDSU 10 NIU 7
- 9 SDSU 0 NIU 3
- 10 SDSU 7 NIU 17
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
San Diego State wins 82% of them, Northern Illinois 18%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: San Diego State by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| San Diego State by 17+ | 27.5% |
| San Diego State by 9–16 | 26.0% |
| San Diego State by 1–8 | 23.2% |
| Level after regulation | 5.9% |
| Northern Illinois by 1–8 | 11.5% |
| Northern Illinois by 9–16 | 4.6% |
| Northern Illinois by 17+ | 1.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- A. Glass, 31 yds made · 86% expected
- G. Plascencia, 30 yds made · 90% expected
- G. Plascencia, 25 yds made · 94% expected
Penalties: San Diego State 5 for 50 yards, Northern Illinois 7 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:29 | Ineligible Downfield on Northern Illinois, 5 yards | +1% SDSU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 5:19 | Pass Interference on Northern Illinois, 15 yards | +2% SDSU +0.9 pts |
| Q1 2:08 | Holding on San Diego State, 10 yards | +2% NIU +1.0 pts |
| Q2 7:12 | Offside on San Diego State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NIU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 4:17 | False Start on San Diego State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NIU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 3:04 | False Start on Northern Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SDSU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 1:07 | Pass Interference on San Diego State, 15 yards | +2% NIU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 7:39 | Holding on Northern Illinois, 10 yards | +3% SDSU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 6:48 | Personal Foul on San Diego State, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +31% NIU +5.1 pts |
| Q4 2:38 | False Start on Northern Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% SDSU +0.3 pts |
| Q4 1:10 | Personal Foul on Northern Illinois, 15 yards | +13% SDSU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 0:49 | Offside on Northern Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | +10% SDSU +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Northern Illinois’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 64%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 9:19 | San Diego State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +9% NIU | SDSU: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 7:21 | San Diego State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +6% NIU | SDSU: Punt |
| 3 | Q4 8:32 | San Diego State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +9% NIU | SDSU: Turnover |
| 4 | Q4 6:53 | Northern Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +6% SDSU | NIU: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q4 6:48 | Personal Foul on San Diego State, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +31% NIU | NIU: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 3:19 | San Diego State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +11% NIU | SDSU: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 1:10 | Personal Foul on Northern Illinois, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +13% SDSU | SDSU: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 0:49 | Offside on Northern Illinois, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +10% SDSU | SDSU: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
San Diego State 74% · Northern Illinois 26%
- Final margin
- San Diego State by 3
- Luck in points
- 0.7 for Northern Illinois
- Luck-adjusted margin
- San Diego State by 3.7
- Replay with same day's form
- San Diego State 82% · Northern Illinois 18% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
San Diego State · 
Northern Illinois
More from Week 5 2025
- Hawai'i at Air Force HAW 44–35 · replay 5% for the winner
- San José State at Stanford STAN 30–29 · replay 43% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Ohio OHIO 35–20 · replay 62% for the winner
- Washington State at Colorado State WSU 20–3 · replay 70% for the winner
- UConn at Buffalo CONN 20–17 · replay 71% for the winner
- Rhode Island at Western Michigan WMU 47–14 · replay 88% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan CMU 24–13 · replay 90% for the winner
- New Mexico State at New Mexico UNM 38–20 · replay 97% for the winner
- App State at Boise State BOIS 47–14 · replay 98% for the winner
- Utah State at Vanderbilt VAN 55–35 · replay 100% for the winner
- Lindenwood at Miami (OH) M-OH 38–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Akron at Toledo TOL 45–3 · replay 100% for the winner