Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025
Rhode Island at Western Michigan, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
Western Michigan beat Rhode Island 47–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Western Michigan wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Western Michigan was a 68% favorite.
Final
 Rhode Island Rams | 14 |
|---|---|
 Western Michigan Broncos | 47 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Western Michigan about even · −12 Rhode Island
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rhode Island wins 1, Western Michigan wins 9.
- 1 URI 26 WMU 19
- 2 URI 24 WMU 27
- 3 URI 21 WMU 27
- 4 URI 21 WMU 31
- 5 URI 21 WMU 36
- 6 URI 16 WMU 34
- 7 URI 14 WMU 35
- 8 URI 10 WMU 38
- 9 URI 14 WMU 47
- 10 URI 10 WMU 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Rhode Island wins 12% of them, Western Michigan 88%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Western Michigan by 33.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rhode Island by 17+ | 1.6% |
| Rhode Island by 9–16 | 3.1% |
| Rhode Island by 1–8 | 7.8% |
| Level after regulation | 0.9% |
| Western Michigan by 1–8 | 12.9% |
| Western Michigan by 9–16 | 18.4% |
| Western Michigan by 17+ | 55.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- P. Domschke, 29 yds made · 85% expected
- P. Domschke, 41 yds made · 68% expected
- P. Domschke, 49 yds made · 54% expected
- H. Smith, 21 yds made · 93% expected
Penalties: Rhode Island 3 for 25 yards, Western Michigan 3 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:54 | Pass Interference on Western Michigan, 15 yards | +3% URI +1.7 pts |
| Q1 13:10 | Offside on Rhode Island, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% WMU +0.9 pts |
| Q1 12:26 | Face Mask on Rhode Island, 15 yards | +3% WMU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 7:12 | Holding on Western Michigan, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% URI +4.5 pts |
| Q2 3:43 | False Start on Rhode Island, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WMU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 7:35 | False Start on Western Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% URI +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Western Michigan’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:54 | Pass Interference on Western Michigan, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% URI | URI: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 12:26 | Face Mask on Rhode Island, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% WMU | WMU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 10:01 | Western Michigan converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +3% WMU | WMU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 3:10 | Western Michigan converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +4% WMU | WMU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 14:49 | Western Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +3% URI | WMU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 14:00 | Western Michigan converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected | +4% WMU | WMU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 7:12 | Holding on Western Michigan, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +7% URI | URI: Turnover |
| 8 | Q2 6:15 | Rhode Island fumbled and Western Michigan recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% WMU | URI: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rhode Island 0% · Western Michigan 100%
- Final margin
- Western Michigan by 33
- Luck in points
- 13.3 for Western Michigan
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Western Michigan by 19.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Rhode Island 12% · Western Michigan 88% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
Rhode Island · 
Western Michigan
More from Week 5 2025
- Bowling Green at Ohio OHIO 35–20 · replay 62% for the winner
- UConn at Buffalo CONN 20–17 · replay 71% for the winner
- San Diego State at Northern Illinois SDSU 6–3 · replay 82% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan CMU 24–13 · replay 90% for the winner
- Lindenwood at Miami (OH) M-OH 38–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Akron at Toledo TOL 45–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Missouri MIZ 42–6 · replay 100% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Air Force HAW 44–35 · replay 5% for the winner
- Louisville at Pittsburgh LOU 34–27 · replay 11% for the winner
- California at Boston College CAL 28–24 · replay 28% for the winner
- Marshall at Louisiana UL 54–51 · replay 29% for the winner
- Cincinnati at Kansas CIN 37–34 · replay 30% for the winner