Week 7 2025 · October 10, 2025
South Florida at North Texas, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
South Florida beat North Texas 63–36, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, South Florida wins 9 of 10.
An off day for North Texas: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against South Florida it would win 41% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%. The numbers
Before kickoff North Texas was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 11:35 left): Return touchdown by South Florida, worth 11 points of win probability to South Florida.
Final
 South Florida Bulls | 63 |
|---|---|
 North Texas Mean Green | 36 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 South Florida about even · −7 North Texas
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. South Florida wins 9, North Texas wins 1.
- 1 USF 66 UNT 17
- 2 USF 69 UNT 27
- 3 USF 49 UNT 13
- 4 USF 48 UNT 17
- 5 USF 52 UNT 26
- 6 USF 52 UNT 31
- 7 USF 38 UNT 21
- 8 USF 48 UNT 36
- 9 USF 38 UNT 34
- 10 USF 42 UNT 51
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for North Texas
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against South Florida it would win 41% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
35 points apart for North Texas: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Florida offenseEPA per play gained | +0.62 | +0.03 | better by 0.59 |
| South Florida defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.20 | +0.09 | worse by 0.10 |
| North Texas offenseEPA per play gained | +0.20 | +0.13 | better by 0.07 |
| North Texas defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.62 | +0.10 | worse by 0.52 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
South Florida wins 93% of them, North Texas 7%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: South Florida by 27.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| South Florida by 17+ | 71.8% |
| South Florida by 9–16 | 12.3% |
| South Florida by 1–8 | 8.2% |
| Level after regulation | 1.5% |
| North Texas by 1–8 | 3.9% |
| North Texas by 9–16 | 1.4% |
| North Texas by 17+ | 0.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: South Florida 5 for 52 yards, North Texas 4 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:44 | Holding on South Florida, 7 yards | +2% UNT +1.2 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% USF +0.6 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% USF +0.5 pts |
| Q2 9:11 | Pass Interference on South Florida, 15 yards | +3% UNT +1.3 pts |
| Q3 11:35 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on South Florida, 15 yards | +6% UNT +4.0 pts |
| Q3 5:02 | Holding on North Texas, 10 yards | 0% USF +0.8 pts |
| Q3 3:26 | Illegal Substitution on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UNT +0.5 pts |
| Q4 7:47 | Illegal Use of Hands on North Texas, 10 yards | 0% USF +0.6 pts |
| Q4 3:13 | Illegal Block on South Florida, 10 yards | 0% UNT +0.6 pts |
When it happened
North Texas’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 2:55 | South Florida converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +4% USF | USF: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 1:20 | North Texas converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +5% UNT | UNT: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 11:43 | South Florida converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +3% USF | USF: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 10:17 | South Florida converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +3% USF | USF: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 9:11 | Pass Interference on South Florida, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% UNT | UNT: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 7:51 | North Texas converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +2% UNT | UNT: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 6:12 | North Texas converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +3% UNT | UNT: Turnover |
| 8 | Q3 11:35 | North Texas fumbled and South Florida recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Unsportsmanlike Conduct on South Florida, 15 yardsJudgment callsReturn touchdown by South FloridaSpecial teams | +11% USF | UNT: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
South Florida 100% · North Texas 0%
- Final margin
- South Florida by 27
- Luck in points
- 4.6 for North Texas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- South Florida by 31.6
- Replay with same day's form
- South Florida 93% · North Texas 7% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
South Florida · 
North Texas
More from Week 7 2025
- Navy at Temple NAVY 32–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- East Carolina at Tulane TULN 26–19 · replay 76% for the winner
- Rice at UTSA UTSA 61–13 · replay 99% for the winner
- Charlotte at Army ARMY 24–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- UAB at Florida Atlantic FAU 53–33 · replay 100% for the winner
- Northwestern at Penn State NU 22–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Toledo at Bowling Green BGSU 28–23 · replay 21% for the winner
- Purdue at Minnesota MINN 27–20 · replay 25% for the winner
- Alabama at Missouri ALA 27–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina CCU 23–8 · replay 31% for the winner
- TCU at Kansas State KSU 41–28 · replay 31% for the winner
- Troy at Texas State TROY 48–41 · replay 31% for the winner