Week 7 2025 · October 9, 2025
East Carolina at Tulane, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
Tulane beat East Carolina 26–19, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10. East Carolina had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 11 points of win probability to East Carolina.
Before kickoff Tulane was a 68% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 14:17 left): Tulane fumbled and East Carolina recovered, worth 20 points of win probability to East Carolina.
Final
 East Carolina Pirates | 19 |
|---|---|
 Tulane Green Wave | 26 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +24 Tulane about even · −24 East Carolina
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. East Carolina wins 2, Tulane wins 8.
- 1 ECU 38 TULN 24
- 2 ECU 28 TULN 24
- 3 ECU 10 TULN 12
- 4 ECU 17 TULN 23
- 5 ECU 6 TULN 14
- 6 ECU 23 TULN 35
- 7 ECU 21 TULN 35
- 8 ECU 20 TULN 38
- 9 ECU 14 TULN 37
- 10 ECU 3 TULN 36
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
East Carolina wins 24% of them, Tulane 76%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Tulane by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| East Carolina by 17+ | 4.2% |
| East Carolina by 9–16 | 7.2% |
| East Carolina by 1–8 | 10.9% |
| Level after regulation | 2.1% |
| Tulane by 1–8 | 22.6% |
| Tulane by 9–16 | 19.1% |
| Tulane by 17+ | 34.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- P. Durkin, 30 yds made · 87% expected
- P. Durkin, 29 yds made · 88% expected
- P. Durkin, 21 yds made · 94% expected
- P. Durkin, 40 yds made · 73% expected
- N. Mazzie, 46 yds made · 60% expected
- N. Mazzie, 26 yds made · 90% expected
Penalties: East Carolina 7 for 60 yards, Tulane 11 for 96 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | False Start on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% TULN +1.9 pts |
| Q1 9:16 | Chop Block on Tulane, 15 yards | +3% ECU +2.1 pts |
| Q1 6:37 | Chop Block on Tulane, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +6% ECU +3.6 pts |
| Q1 3:29 | False Start on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ECU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 13:37 | False Start on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TULN +0.9 pts |
| Q2 10:50 | False Start on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ECU +1.1 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Pass Interference on East Carolina, 15 yards | +1% TULN +0.6 pts |
| Q3 11:47 | Holding on Tulane, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% ECU +2.5 pts |
| Q3 11:47 | Holding on Tulane, 7 yards, wiping out the play | +6% ECU +2.0 pts |
| Q3 8:46 | Offside on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap | +8% ECU +2.9 pts |
| Q3 2:42 | Holding on East Carolina, 10 yards | +5% TULN +1.5 pts |
| Q4 10:51 | Offside on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% ECU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 10:51 | False Start on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% TULN +0.7 pts |
| Q4 10:51 | Delay of Game on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +7% TULN +1.6 pts |
| Q4 5:48 | False Start on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap | +6% ECU +1.0 pts |
| Q4 1:21 | Face Mask on East Carolina, 15 yards | +3% TULN +1.1 pts |
| Q4 0:30 | Pass Interference on Tulane, 15 yards | +1% ECU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 0:30 | Pass Interference on Tulane, 9 yards | +2% TULN +1.3 pts |
When it happened
Tulane’s chance of winning
As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 6:37 | Chop Block on Tulane, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% ECU | ECU: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 8:46 | East Carolina converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expectedEast Carolina converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedEast Carolina converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedEast Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expectedOffside on Tulane, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +14% ECU | ECU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 2:43 | East Carolina converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedEast Carolina’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +19% ECU | ECU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 2:42 | East Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedHolding on East Carolina, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +13% TULN | ECU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 14:17 | East Carolina converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedEast Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expectedTulane fumbled and East Carolina recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +20% ECU | ECU: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 10:51 | East Carolina converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expectedEast Carolina converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expectedEast Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedOffside on Tulane, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsFalse Start on East Carolina, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsDelay of Game on East Carolina, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +12% TULN | ECU: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 5:48 | Tulane converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expectedTulane converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expectedN. Mazzie made a 26-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for himFalse Start on Tulane, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +12% TULN | TULN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 1:55 | Tulane converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +6% TULN | TULN: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
East Carolina 4% · Tulane 96%
- Final margin
- Tulane by 7
- Luck in points
- 6.1 for East Carolina
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tulane by 13.1
- Replay with same day's form
- East Carolina 24% · Tulane 76% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
East Carolina · 
Tulane
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