luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025

Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 62 of the 86 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

UAB at Florida Atlantic, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?

Florida Atlantic beat UAB 53–33, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Florida Atlantic wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Florida Atlantic was a 61% favorite.

Final

UAB Blazers 33
Florida Atlantic Owls 53

October 11, 2025 · FAU Stadium · Closing line: Florida Atlantic −4.5

Luck index 0 Florida Atlantic about even · 0 UAB

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. UAB wins 0, Florida Atlantic wins 10.

  1. 1 UAB 0 FAU 14
  2. 2 UAB 3 FAU 24
  3. 3 UAB 3 FAU 28
  4. 4 UAB 10 FAU 38
  5. 5 UAB 3 FAU 34
  6. 6 UAB 0 FAU 34
  7. 7 UAB 0 FAU 38
  8. 8 UAB 0 FAU 41
  9. 9 UAB 0 FAU 45
  10. 10 UAB 7 FAU 59

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

UAB wins 0% of them, Florida Atlantic 100%. The line is what actually happened: Florida Atlantic by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
UAB by 17+0.0%
UAB by 9–160.0%
UAB by 1–80.0%
Level after regulation0.1%
Florida Atlantic by 1–80.5%
Florida Atlantic by 9–161.9%
Florida Atlantic by 17+97.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.4 points to Florida Atlantic: the final margin was Florida Atlantic by 20, without the luck Florida Atlantic by 18.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Delange, 45 yds made · 64% expected
  • G. Smith, 28 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: UAB 11 for 93 yards, Florida Atlantic 2 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:21 Pass Interference on UAB, 6 yards +2% FAU +1.2 pts
Q1 2:53 False Start on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% FAU +0.7 pts
Q1 0:27 Targeting on UAB, 15 yards +1% FAU +0.7 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FAU +0.7 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FAU +0.2 pts
Q2 8:52 Pass Interference on Florida Atlantic, 15 yards +1% UAB +4.1 pts
Q2 3:15 Unnecessary Roughness on UAB, 15 yards 0% FAU +0.7 pts
Q2 1:55 Holding on Florida Atlantic, 10 yards +1% UAB +1.0 pts
Q3 12:28 Pass Interference on UAB, 7 yards 0% FAU +1.7 pts
Q4 6:57 Ineligible Downfield on UAB, 5 yards 0% FAU +0.5 pts
Q4 5:25 Holding on UAB, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% FAU +0.9 pts
Q4 5:05 Illegal Motion on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FAU +0.1 pts
Q4 1:50 Unnecessary Roughness on UAB, 15 yards 0% FAU +0.6 pts

When it happened

Florida Atlantic’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Florida Atlantic was ahead in it, below while UAB was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:26 UAB was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +2% FAU UAB: Punt
2 Q1 10:07 Florida Atlantic converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +5% FAU FAU: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:49 Florida Atlantic was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +2% UAB FAU: Touchdown
4 Q1 6:04 Florida Atlantic converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +3% FAU FAU: Touchdown
5 Q1 5:21 Pass Interference on UAB, 6 yardsJudgment calls +2% FAU FAU: Touchdown
6 Q1 3:10 UAB converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +4% UAB UAB: Punt
7 Q2 3:15 UAB converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expectedUAB’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on UAB, 15 yardsJudgment calls +3% UAB UAB: Punt
8 Q2 1:29 Florida Atlantic converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +3% FAU FAU: End of half

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

UAB 0% · Florida Atlantic 100%

Final margin
Florida Atlantic by 20
Luck in points
1.4 for Florida Atlantic
Luck-adjusted margin
Florida Atlantic by 18.6
Replay with same day's form
UAB 0% · Florida Atlantic 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 62 of the 86 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · UAB · Florida Atlantic

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