Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025
Rice at UTSA, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
UTSA beat Rice 61–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, UTSA wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff UTSA was a 71% favorite.
Final
 Rice Owls | 13 |
|---|---|
 UTSA Roadrunners | 61 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 UTSA about even · −1 Rice
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rice wins 0, UTSA wins 10.
- 1 RICE 24 UTSA 31
- 2 RICE 24 UTSA 38
- 3 RICE 14 UTSA 33
- 4 RICE 24 UTSA 46
- 5 RICE 16 UTSA 42
- 6 RICE 10 UTSA 39
- 7 RICE 7 UTSA 40
- 8 RICE 0 UTSA 38
- 9 RICE 10 UTSA 52
- 10 RICE 0 UTSA 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Rice wins 1% of them, UTSA 99%. The line is what actually happened: UTSA by 48.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rice by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Rice by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Rice by 1–8 | 0.7% |
| Level after regulation | 0.2% |
| UTSA by 1–8 | 2.9% |
| UTSA by 9–16 | 6.3% |
| UTSA by 17+ | 89.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- E. Gota, 36 yds made · 77% expected
- M. Petro, 45 yds made · 63% expected
- C. Allen, 45 yds made · 63% expected
Penalties: Rice 5 for 50 yards, UTSA 6 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:46 | Face Mask on Rice, 15 yards | +2% UTSA +1.4 pts |
| Q1 3:12 | False Start on Rice, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTSA +0.4 pts |
| Q2 8:26 | Offside on Rice, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTSA +0.6 pts |
| Q2 7:28 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Rice, 10 yards | 0% UTSA +1.3 pts |
| Q2 6:26 | Holding on UTSA, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% RICE +3.0 pts |
| Q2 3:41 | Offside on UTSA, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTSA +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:27 | Illegal Formation on UTSA, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% RICE +1.2 pts |
| Q3 11:39 | Face Mask on UTSA, 15 yards | 0% RICE +1.5 pts |
| Q3 7:09 | Pass Interference on Rice, 15 yards | 0% UTSA +0.5 pts |
| Q3 7:09 | Delay of Game on UTSA, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% RICE +0.3 pts |
| Q3 6:59 | Holding on UTSA, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% RICE +1.2 pts |
When it happened
UTSA’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:01 | Rice converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +3% RICE | RICE: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 8:14 | Rice was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedRice fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% RICE | RICE: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 7:46 | Face Mask on Rice, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% UTSA | UTSA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 3:21 | Rice was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 17% expected | +1% UTSA | RICE: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 3:12 | False Start on Rice, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% UTSA | UTSA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 0:00 | Rice was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +0% UTSA | RICE: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 13:39 | UTSA was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +1% RICE | UTSA: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 6:26 | Holding on UTSA, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% RICE | RICE: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rice 0% · UTSA 100%
- Final margin
- UTSA by 48
- Luck in points
- 7.8 for Rice
- Luck-adjusted margin
- UTSA by 55.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Rice 1% · UTSA 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
Rice · 
UTSA
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- Alabama at Missouri ALA 27–24 · replay 30% for the winner
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