Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025
Arizona at Houston, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
Houston beat Arizona 31–28, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
An off day for Arizona: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Houston it would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 20%. The numbers
Before kickoff Arizona was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:46 left): Pass Interference on Houston, 15 yards, worth 9 points of win probability to Arizona.
Final
 Arizona Wildcats | 28 |
|---|---|
 Houston Cougars | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Houston about even · −20 Arizona
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arizona wins 2, Houston wins 8.
- 1 ARIZ 28 HOU 14
- 2 ARIZ 17 HOU 14
- 3 ARIZ 21 HOU 24
- 4 ARIZ 20 HOU 24
- 5 ARIZ 28 HOU 35
- 6 ARIZ 17 HOU 28
- 7 ARIZ 24 HOU 38
- 8 ARIZ 14 HOU 31
- 9 ARIZ 24 HOU 45
- 10 ARIZ 14 HOU 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Arizona
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Houston it would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 20%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
34 points apart for Arizona: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona offenseEPA per play gained | +0.33 | +0.08 | better by 0.25 |
| Arizona defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.32 | +0.07 | worse by 0.25 |
| Houston offenseEPA per play gained | +0.32 | −0.01 | better by 0.33 |
| Houston defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.33 | +0.01 | worse by 0.31 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Arizona wins 20% of them, Houston 80%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Houston by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arizona by 17+ | 2.0% |
| Arizona by 9–16 | 5.1% |
| Arizona by 1–8 | 12.6% |
| Level after regulation | 4.0% |
| Houston by 1–8 | 23.4% |
| Houston by 9–16 | 21.2% |
| Houston by 17+ | 31.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- E. Sanchez, 48 yds missed · 60% expected
- E. Sanchez, 41 yds made · 73% expected
Penalties: Arizona 7 for 80 yards, Houston 4 for 39 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 3:11 | Holding on Arizona, 10 yards | +1% HOU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 2:05 | Pass Interference on Arizona, 15 yards | +3% HOU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 14:31 | Pass Interference on Houston, 15 yards | +3% ARIZ +1.6 pts |
| Q2 10:52 | Offside on Arizona, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% HOU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 10:03 | False Start on Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARIZ +0.7 pts |
| Q3 12:49 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Arizona, 15 yards | +4% HOU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 4:52 | Holding on Arizona, 10 yards | +1% HOU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 13:52 | Pass Interference on Arizona, 15 yards | +4% HOU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 11:04 | Holding on Arizona, 10 yards | +2% HOU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 5:46 | Pass Interference on Houston, 15 yards | +9% ARIZ +1.6 pts |
| Q4 5:42 | Pass Interference on Houston, 4 yards | +6% ARIZ +1.0 pts |
When it happened
Houston’s chance of winning
As low as 22% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 3:11 | Arizona was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expectedHolding on Arizona, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +5% HOU | ARIZ: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 6:35 | Houston converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +6% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 3:34 | Arizona converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +5% ARIZ | ARIZ: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q2 1:39 | Arizona was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +6% HOU | ARIZ: End of half |
| 5 | Q3 13:49 | Houston converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +6% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 11:43 | E. Sanchez missed a 48-yard field goalKicks · 60% expected for him, 5 of 7 from 45+ before | +7% ARIZ | HOU: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 5:46 | Pass Interference on Houston, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +9% ARIZ | ARIZ: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 5:42 | Pass Interference on Houston, 4 yardsJudgment calls | +6% ARIZ | ARIZ: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arizona 47% · Houston 53%
- Final margin
- Houston by 3
- Luck in points
- 2.7 for Houston
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Houston by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Arizona 20% · Houston 80% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Arizona · 
Houston
More from Week 8 2025
- Texas Tech at Arizona State ASU 26–22 · replay 38% for the winner
- Utah at BYU BYU 24–21 · replay 43% for the winner
- Cincinnati at Oklahoma State CIN 49–17 · replay 77% for the winner
- Baylor at TCU TCU 42–36 · replay 93% for the winner
- West Virginia at UCF UCF 45–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner
- Missouri at Auburn MIZ 23–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- Florida International at Western Kentucky FIU 25–6 · replay 33% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Louisiana USM 22–10 · replay 34% for the winner