Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025
Baylor at TCU, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
TCU beat Baylor 42–36, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, TCU wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff TCU was a 59% favorite.
Final
 Baylor Bears | 36 |
|---|---|
 TCU Horned Frogs | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 TCU about even · −7 Baylor
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Baylor wins 1, TCU wins 9.
- 1 BAY 35 TCU 26
- 2 BAY 20 TCU 23
- 3 BAY 19 TCU 28
- 4 BAY 20 TCU 33
- 5 BAY 23 TCU 41
- 6 BAY 21 TCU 43
- 7 BAY 21 TCU 47
- 8 BAY 16 TCU 47
- 9 BAY 10 TCU 48
- 10 BAY 0 TCU 46
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Baylor wins 7% of them, TCU 93%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: TCU by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Baylor by 17+ | 0.7% |
| Baylor by 9–16 | 1.4% |
| Baylor by 1–8 | 3.8% |
| Level after regulation | 0.9% |
| TCU by 1–8 | 9.6% |
| TCU by 9–16 | 13.2% |
| TCU by 17+ | 70.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Hawkins, 42 yds made · 69% expected
- C. Hawkins, 41 yds made · 71% expected
Penalties: Baylor 5 for 34 yards, TCU 7 for 75 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:04 | Holding on Baylor, 0 yards | 0% TCU 0.0 pts |
| Q1 3:03 | Pass Interference on TCU, 15 yards | +4% BAY +1.6 pts |
| Q2 11:29 | Personal Foul on Baylor, 9 yards | +1% TCU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 7:28 | Holding on TCU, 10 yards | +1% BAY +0.6 pts |
| Q2 5:18 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on TCU, 15 yards | +6% BAY +3.0 pts |
| Q2 3:10 | Holding on Baylor, 10 yards | +1% TCU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:49 | Offside on Baylor, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TCU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 1:46 | False Start on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BAY +0.5 pts |
| Q4 13:40 | Pass Interference on TCU, 15 yards | +2% BAY +1.6 pts |
| Q4 10:18 | Ineligible Downfield on TCU, 0 yards | 0% BAY 0.0 pts |
| Q4 3:04 | Personal Foul on TCU, 15 yards | 0% BAY +0.9 pts |
| Q4 0:27 | Holding on Baylor, 10 yards | +3% TCU +0.6 pts |
When it happened
TCU’s chance of winning
As low as 42% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 4:46 | Baylor converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +8% BAY | BAY: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 11:29 | TCU converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 45% expectedPersonal Foul on Baylor, 9 yardsJudgment calls | +6% TCU | TCU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 10:42 | Baylor converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +6% BAY | BAY: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q2 9:09 | Baylor was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +7% TCU | BAY: Turnover |
| 5 | Q2 7:28 | TCU was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedHolding on TCU, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +4% BAY | TCU: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 6:49 | Baylor fumbled and TCU recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% TCU | BAY: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 5:18 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on TCU, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% BAY | BAY: Field goal |
| 8 | Q2 0:11 | TCU converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +5% TCU | TCU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Baylor 17% · TCU 83%
- Final margin
- TCU by 6
- Luck in points
- 0.1 for Baylor
- Luck-adjusted margin
- TCU by 6.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Baylor 7% · TCU 93% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Baylor · 
TCU
More from Week 8 2025
- Texas Tech at Arizona State ASU 26–22 · replay 38% for the winner
- Utah at BYU BYU 24–21 · replay 43% for the winner
- Cincinnati at Oklahoma State CIN 49–17 · replay 77% for the winner
- Arizona at Houston HOU 31–28 · replay 80% for the winner
- West Virginia at UCF UCF 45–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner
- Missouri at Auburn MIZ 23–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- Florida International at Western Kentucky FIU 25–6 · replay 33% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Louisiana USM 22–10 · replay 34% for the winner