luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025

Cincinnati at Oklahoma State, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?

Cincinnati beat Oklahoma State 49–17, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.

Before kickoff Cincinnati was a 94% favorite.

Final

Cincinnati Bearcats 49
Oklahoma State Cowboys 17

October 18, 2025 · Boone Pickens Stadium · Closing line: Cincinnati −23.5

Luck index +23 Cincinnati about even · −23 Oklahoma State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cincinnati wins 8, Oklahoma State wins 2.

  1. 1 CIN 45 OKST 10
  2. 2 CIN 48 OKST 21
  3. 3 CIN 42 OKST 21
  4. 4 CIN 30 OKST 14
  5. 5 CIN 44 OKST 31
  6. 6 CIN 38 OKST 28
  7. 7 CIN 17 OKST 10
  8. 8 CIN 31 OKST 28
  9. 9 CIN 14 OKST 17
  10. 10 CIN 10 OKST 21

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cincinnati wins 77% of them, Oklahoma State 23%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cincinnati by 32.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cincinnati by 17+31.1%
Cincinnati by 9–1619.4%
Cincinnati by 1–821.9%
Level after regulation6.4%
Oklahoma State by 1–812.7%
Oklahoma State by 9–165.7%
Oklahoma State by 17+2.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.2 points to Cincinnati: the final margin was Cincinnati by 32, without the luck Cincinnati by 22.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Cincinnati 4 for 36 yards, Oklahoma State 8 for 70 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:51 False Start on Oklahoma State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.9 pts
Q1 9:30 Pass Interference on Cincinnati, 6 yards 0% OKST +1.1 pts
Q2 10:11 Roughing the Passer on Oklahoma State, 15 yards +1% CIN +1.6 pts
Q2 9:05 Holding on Oklahoma State, 10 yards +1% CIN +1.3 pts
Q2 6:35 Holding on Oklahoma State, 10 yards 0% CIN +0.6 pts
Q3 10:39 Offside on Oklahoma State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.3 pts
Q3 5:37 Illegal Substitution on Cincinnati, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% OKST +0.7 pts
Q4 14:07 Pass Interference on Oklahoma State, 15 yards 0% CIN +1.6 pts
Q4 7:24 Ineligible Downfield on Oklahoma State, 5 yards 0% CIN +0.3 pts
Q4 7:01 Pass Interference on Cincinnati, 15 yards 0% OKST +1.6 pts
Q4 6:56 False Start on Oklahoma State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.7 pts
Q4 2:00 Personal Foul on Cincinnati, 15 yards 0% OKST +0.1 pts

When it happened

Oklahoma State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Oklahoma State was ahead in it, below while Cincinnati was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:43 Cincinnati converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +1% CIN CIN: Touchdown
2 Q2 11:12 Oklahoma State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +3% CIN OKST: Turnover on downs
3 Q2 10:11 Roughing the Passer on Oklahoma State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +1% CIN CIN: Touchdown
4 Q2 7:25 Oklahoma State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +1% OKST OKST: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 4:48 Oklahoma State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +1% OKST OKST: Turnover on downs
6 Q2 2:28 Oklahoma State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +1% CIN OKST: End of half
7 Q3 3:04 Oklahoma State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +1% CIN OKST: Punt
8 Q4 15:00 Cincinnati converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +1% CIN CIN: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cincinnati 100% · Oklahoma State 0%

Final margin
Cincinnati by 32
Luck in points
9.2 for Cincinnati
Luck-adjusted margin
Cincinnati by 22.8
Replay with same day's form
Cincinnati 77% · Oklahoma State 23% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · Cincinnati · Oklahoma State

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