luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025

West Virginia at UCF, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?

UCF beat West Virginia 45–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, UCF wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff UCF was a 66% favorite.

Final

West Virginia Mountaineers 13
UCF Knights 45

October 18, 2025 · FBC Mortgage Stadium · Closing line: UCF −6.5

Luck index 0 UCF about even · 0 West Virginia

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. West Virginia wins 0, UCF wins 10.

  1. 1 WVU 0 UCF 24
  2. 2 WVU 17 UCF 52
  3. 3 WVU 10 UCF 49
  4. 4 WVU 17 UCF 59
  5. 5 WVU 10 UCF 56
  6. 6 WVU 20 UCF 69
  7. 7 WVU 6 UCF 59
  8. 8 WVU 17 UCF 76
  9. 9 WVU 7 UCF 70
  10. 10 WVU 7 UCF 77

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

West Virginia wins 0% of them, UCF 100%. The line is what actually happened: UCF by 32.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
West Virginia by 17+0.0%
West Virginia by 9–160.0%
West Virginia by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.0%
UCF by 1–80.6%
UCF by 9–161.7%
UCF by 17+97.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.3 points to UCF: the final margin was UCF by 32, without the luck UCF by 25.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • K. Hensley, 44 yds missed · 65% expected
  • N. Ruelas, 51 yds made · 55% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: West Virginia 5 for 35 yards, UCF 7 for 69 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:53 Pass Interference on UCF, 15 yards +2% WVU +1.3 pts
Q2 2:47 Holding on West Virginia, 10 yards +3% UCF +1.3 pts
Q2 0:56 False Start on West Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UCF +0.3 pts
Q2 0:19 Unnecessary Roughness on UCF, 16 yards +4% WVU +1.7 pts
Q3 14:55 Holding on UCF, 14 yards 0% WVU +0.9 pts
Q3 14:55 Holding on UCF, 8 yards +1% WVU +0.5 pts
Q3 12:36 Offside on West Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UCF +0.6 pts
Q3 9:09 Holding on UCF, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% WVU +4.9 pts
Q3 8:59 False Start on West Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UCF +0.7 pts
Q3 3:58 Holding on West Virginia, 10 yards 0% UCF +1.8 pts
Q4 13:51 Intentional Grounding on UCF, 1 yard 0% WVU +0.9 pts
Q4 13:09 Delay of Game on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WVU +0.5 pts

When it happened

UCF’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while UCF was ahead in it, below while West Virginia was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:33 UCF converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +5% UCF UCF: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:54 UCF converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +4% UCF UCF: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 0:55 UCF was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected +5% WVU UCF: Turnover on downs
4 Q2 7:44 UCF was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +4% WVU UCF: Punt
5 Q2 0:19 Unnecessary Roughness on UCF, 16 yardsJudgment calls +4% WVU WVU: Missed field goal
6 Q3 14:23 UCF converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +4% UCF UCF: Touchdown
7 Q3 12:51 UCF converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +4% UCF UCF: Touchdown
8 Q3 10:40 West Virginia fumbled and UCF recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by UCFSpecial teams +5% UCF WVU: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

West Virginia 0% · UCF 100%

Final margin
UCF by 32
Luck in points
6.3 for UCF
Luck-adjusted margin
UCF by 25.7
Replay with same day's form
West Virginia 0% · UCF 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · West Virginia · UCF

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