luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025

Rutgers at Purdue, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?

Rutgers beat Purdue 27–24, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Rutgers wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 9 points of win probability to Rutgers.

Before kickoff Purdue was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:05 left): Purdue fumbled and Rutgers recovered, worth 13 points of win probability to Rutgers.

Final

Rutgers Scarlet Knights 27
Purdue Boilermakers 24

October 25, 2025 · Ross-Ade Stadium · Closing line: Purdue −2.5

Luck index +52 Rutgers lucky · −52 Purdue

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rutgers wins 5, Purdue wins 5.

  1. 1 RUTG 38 PUR 10
  2. 2 RUTG 38 PUR 21
  3. 3 RUTG 26 PUR 14
  4. 4 RUTG 31 PUR 24
  5. 5 RUTG 17 PUR 14
  6. 6 RUTG 27 PUR 30
  7. 7 RUTG 28 PUR 34
  8. 8 RUTG 24 PUR 34
  9. 9 RUTG 21 PUR 35
  10. 10 RUTG 3 PUR 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rutgers wins 48% of them, Purdue 52%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rutgers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rutgers by 17+12.7%
Rutgers by 9–1614.6%
Rutgers by 1–820.0%
Level after regulation1.2%
Purdue by 1–822.3%
Purdue by 9–1615.7%
Purdue by 17+13.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.5 points to Rutgers: the final margin was Rutgers by 3, without the luck Rutgers by 2.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • S. Porath, 20 yds made · 93% expected
  • J. Patel, 45 yds missed · 63% expected
  • J. Patel, 20 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Patel, 30 yds made · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Rutgers 4 for 46 yards, Purdue 0 for 0 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 7:23 Kick Catch Interference on Rutgers, 15 yards +1% PUR +0.9 pts
Q2 0:30 False Start on Rutgers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PUR +0.4 pts
Q4 10:11 Holding on Rutgers, 11 yards, wiping out the play +12% PUR +2.4 pts
Q4 4:52 Pass Interference on Rutgers, 15 yards +13% PUR +1.9 pts

When it happened

Purdue’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 88%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Purdue was ahead in it, below while Rutgers was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:18 Rutgers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +6% RUTG RUTG: Touchdown
2 Q3 2:12 Rutgers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +7% RUTG RUTG: Turnover
3 Q4 14:15 Rutgers fumbled and Purdue recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% PUR RUTG: Touchdown
4 Q4 10:11 Holding on Rutgers, 11 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% PUR PUR: Touchdown
5 Q4 6:02 Purdue converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +7% PUR PUR: Touchdown
6 Q4 4:52 Pass Interference on Rutgers, 15 yardsJudgment calls +13% PUR PUR: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:37 Rutgers was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +5% PUR RUTG: Field goal
8 Q4 1:05 Purdue fumbled and Rutgers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% RUTG –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rutgers 66% · Purdue 34%

Final margin
Rutgers by 3
Luck in points
0.5 for Rutgers
Luck-adjusted margin
Rutgers by 2.5
Replay with same day's form
Rutgers 48% · Purdue 52% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · Rutgers · Purdue

More from Week 9 2025

Every week 9 game, 2025