Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025
Michigan at Michigan State, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
Michigan beat Michigan State 31–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Michigan wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Michigan was an 81% favorite.
Final
 Michigan Wolverines | 31 |
|---|---|
 Michigan State Spartans | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Michigan about even · −7 Michigan State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Michigan wins 9, Michigan State wins 1.
- 1 MICH 58 MSU 7
- 2 MICH 45 MSU 7
- 3 MICH 44 MSU 10
- 4 MICH 44 MSU 14
- 5 MICH 47 MSU 21
- 6 MICH 25 MSU 3
- 7 MICH 34 MSU 16
- 8 MICH 34 MSU 21
- 9 MICH 30 MSU 24
- 10 MICH 17 MSU 23
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Michigan wins 93% of them, Michigan State 7%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Michigan by 11.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Michigan by 17+ | 72.1% |
| Michigan by 9–16 | 12.5% |
| Michigan by 1–8 | 7.8% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| Michigan State by 1–8 | 3.9% |
| Michigan State by 9–16 | 1.9% |
| Michigan State by 17+ | 0.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Michigan 6 for 61 yards, Michigan State 12 for 105 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:07 | Delay of Game on Michigan State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MICH +0.1 pts |
| Q1 10:07 | False Start on Michigan State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% MSU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 7:16 | Pass Interference on Michigan State, 15 yards | +2% MICH +1.6 pts |
| Q1 3:58 | Personal Foul on Michigan State, 15 yards | +1% MICH +0.9 pts |
| Q1 1:40 | Holding on Michigan, 10 yards | +2% MSU +2.4 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on Michigan State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MICH +0.7 pts |
| Q2 10:24 | Personal Foul on Michigan State, 15 yards | 0% MICH +2.2 pts |
| Q2 10:24 | Pass Interference on Michigan, 15 yards | +4% MSU +2.7 pts |
| Q2 8:24 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Michigan State, 15 yards | 0% MICH +2.9 pts |
| Q2 1:11 | Intentional Grounding on Michigan State, 0 yards | 0% MICH 0.0 pts |
| Q3 12:46 | Offside on Michigan State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +4% MICH +2.3 pts |
| Q4 12:34 | Encroachment on Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MSU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 8:01 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Michigan State, 15 yards | +1% MICH +1.6 pts |
| Q4 2:48 | Personal Foul on Michigan, 15 yards | 0% MSU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 2:48 | False Start on Michigan State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MICH +0.4 pts |
| Q4 2:48 | False Start on Michigan State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MICH +0.1 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | Holding on Michigan, 10 yards | 0% MSU +1.1 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | Illegal Substitution on Michigan, 6 yards · pre-snap | +1% MSU 0.0 pts |
When it happened
Michigan State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:14 | Michigan State fumbled and Michigan recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% MICH | MSU: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 7:16 | Michigan converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expectedPass Interference on Michigan State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% MICH | MICH: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 1:40 | Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedHolding on Michigan, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +2% MSU | MICH: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 10:24 | Personal Foul on Michigan State, 15 yardsJudgment callsPass Interference on Michigan, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% MSU | MICH: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 1:11 | Michigan State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expectedMichigan State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expectedIntentional Grounding on Michigan State, 0 yardsJudgment calls | +3% MICH | MSU: End of half |
| 6 | Q3 12:46 | Michigan converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expectedOffside on Michigan State, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +5% MICH | MICH: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 10:13 | Michigan State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +3% MICH | MSU: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 8:01 | Michigan State was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on Michigan State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% MICH | MSU: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Michigan 59% · Michigan State 41%
- Final margin
- Michigan by 11
- Luck in points
- 9.7 for Michigan
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Michigan by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Michigan 93% · Michigan State 7% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
Michigan · 
Michigan State
More from Week 9 2025
- Rutgers at Purdue RUTG 27–24 · replay 48% for the winner
- Illinois at Washington WASH 42–25 · replay 58% for the winner
- Northwestern at Nebraska NEB 28–21 · replay 71% for the winner
- Wisconsin at Oregon ORE 21–7 · replay 87% for the winner
- Minnesota at Iowa IOWA 41–3 · replay 92% for the winner
- UCLA at Indiana IU 56–6 · replay 100% for the winner
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- BYU at Iowa State BYU 41–27 · replay 26% for the winner
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Auburn at Arkansas AUB 33–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner