Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025
Northwestern at Nebraska, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
Nebraska beat Northwestern 28–21, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff Nebraska was a 68% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 14:47 left): Unnecessary Roughness on Nebraska, 15 yards, worth 19 points of win probability to Nebraska.
Final
 Northwestern Wildcats | 21 |
|---|---|
 Nebraska Cornhuskers | 28 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Nebraska lucky · −29 Northwestern
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Northwestern wins 3, Nebraska wins 7.
- 1 NU 24 NEB 7
- 2 NU 23 NEB 13
- 3 NU 10 NEB 7
- 4 NU 21 NEB 23
- 5 NU 26 NEB 31
- 6 NU 14 NEB 21
- 7 NU 13 NEB 24
- 8 NU 7 NEB 24
- 9 NU 0 NEB 21
- 10 NU 10 NEB 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Northwestern wins 29% of them, Nebraska 71%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Nebraska by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Northwestern by 17+ | 4.5% |
| Northwestern by 9–16 | 7.6% |
| Northwestern by 1–8 | 14.3% |
| Level after regulation | 5.2% |
| Nebraska by 1–8 | 23.9% |
| Nebraska by 9–16 | 20.4% |
| Nebraska by 17+ | 24.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Olsen, 40 yds made · 72% expected
- K. Cunanan, 44 yds missed · 66% expected
- J. Olsen, 25 yds made · 90% expected
Penalties: Northwestern 3 for 29 yards, Nebraska 4 for 39 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:10 | False Start on Northwestern, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NEB +0.5 pts |
| Q3 14:47 | Unnecessary Roughness on Nebraska, 15 yards | +19% NEB +1.4 pts |
| Q3 8:26 | Personal Foul on Northwestern, 14 yards | +2% NEB +1.6 pts |
| Q3 6:01 | Offside on Nebraska, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NU +0.9 pts |
| Q3 2:46 | Face Mask on Nebraska, 4 yards | +1% NU +1.0 pts |
| Q4 12:48 | Pass Interference on Nebraska, 15 yards | +5% NU +2.1 pts |
| Q4 9:35 | Holding on Northwestern, 10 yards | 0% NEB +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Nebraska’s chance of winning
As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 10:44 | K. Cunanan missed a 44-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him | +5% NU | NEB: Turnover |
| 2 | Q3 14:47 | Unnecessary Roughness on Nebraska, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +19% NEB | NU: Punt |
| 3 | Q4 12:48 | Pass Interference on Nebraska, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% NU | NU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 11:16 | Northwestern converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expectedNorthwestern’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +9% NU | NU: Turnover |
| 5 | Q4 8:09 | Nebraska converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +9% NEB | NEB: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 6:24 | Nebraska converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +12% NEB | NEB: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 5:14 | Nebraska converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +10% NEB | NEB: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 3:20 | Nebraska converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +12% NEB | NEB: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Northwestern 2% · Nebraska 98%
- Final margin
- Nebraska by 7
- Luck in points
- 6.5 for Northwestern
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Nebraska by 13.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Northwestern 29% · Nebraska 71% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
Northwestern · 
Nebraska
More from Week 9 2025
- Rutgers at Purdue RUTG 27–24 · replay 48% for the winner
- Illinois at Washington WASH 42–25 · replay 58% for the winner
- Wisconsin at Oregon ORE 21–7 · replay 87% for the winner
- Minnesota at Iowa IOWA 41–3 · replay 92% for the winner
- Michigan at Michigan State MICH 31–20 · replay 93% for the winner
- UCLA at Indiana IU 56–6 · replay 100% for the winner
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- BYU at Iowa State BYU 41–27 · replay 26% for the winner
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Auburn at Arkansas AUB 33–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner