Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025
UCLA at Indiana, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
Indiana beat UCLA 56–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Indiana wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Indiana was a 96% favorite.
Final
 UCLA Bruins | 6 |
|---|---|
 Indiana Hoosiers | 56 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Indiana about even · 0 UCLA
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UCLA wins 0, Indiana wins 10.
- 1 UCLA 14 IU 31
- 2 UCLA 10 IU 33
- 3 UCLA 3 IU 30
- 4 UCLA 10 IU 40
- 5 UCLA 7 IU 41
- 6 UCLA 6 IU 44
- 7 UCLA 3 IU 44
- 8 UCLA 0 IU 44
- 9 UCLA 0 IU 49
- 10 UCLA 7 IU 63
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UCLA wins 0% of them, Indiana 100%. The line is what actually happened: Indiana by 50.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UCLA by 17+ | 0.0% |
| UCLA by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| UCLA by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.2% |
| Indiana by 1–8 | 0.9% |
| Indiana by 9–16 | 3.0% |
| Indiana by 17+ | 95.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Bhaghani, 44 yds made · 68% expected
- M. Bhaghani, 30 yds made · 90% expected
Penalties: UCLA 8 for 82 yards, Indiana 3 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:04 | Illegal Block on Indiana, 10 yards | 0% UCLA +0.6 pts |
| Q1 0:42 | Pass Interference on UCLA, 15 yards | 0% IU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 14:58 | Pass Interference on UCLA, 15 yards | 0% IU +1.9 pts |
| Q2 12:25 | Illegal Block on UCLA, 7 yards | 0% IU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 8:44 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Indiana, 15 yards | 0% UCLA +1.2 pts |
| Q2 3:42 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UCLA, 15 yards | 0% IU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 1:07 | Offside on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:46 | Personal Foul on UCLA, 15 yards | 0% IU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 0:28 | Pass Interference on UCLA, 5 yards | 0% IU +1.3 pts |
| Q4 5:50 | Illegal Formation on Indiana, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | 0% UCLA +0.9 pts |
| Q4 1:17 | False Start on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IU +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Indiana’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:16 | UCLA was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +0% IU | UCLA: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 13:04 | Illegal Block on Indiana, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% UCLA | UCLA: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 11:13 | Indiana converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +0% IU | IU: Turnover |
| 4 | Q1 8:13 | UCLA was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +0% IU | UCLA: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q1 6:40 | Indiana converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +0% IU | IU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 4:26 | Indiana was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +0% UCLA | IU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 14:58 | Pass Interference on UCLA, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% IU | IU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 9:59 | UCLA fumbled and Indiana recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% IU | UCLA: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UCLA 0% · Indiana 100%
- Final margin
- Indiana by 50
- Luck in points
- 15.0 for Indiana
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Indiana by 35.0
- Replay with same day's form
- UCLA 0% · Indiana 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
UCLA · 
Indiana
More from Week 9 2025
- Rutgers at Purdue RUTG 27–24 · replay 48% for the winner
- Illinois at Washington WASH 42–25 · replay 58% for the winner
- Northwestern at Nebraska NEB 28–21 · replay 71% for the winner
- Wisconsin at Oregon ORE 21–7 · replay 87% for the winner
- Minnesota at Iowa IOWA 41–3 · replay 92% for the winner
- Michigan at Michigan State MICH 31–20 · replay 93% for the winner
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- BYU at Iowa State BYU 41–27 · replay 26% for the winner
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Auburn at Arkansas AUB 33–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner