Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 21 of the 28 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Wisconsin at Oregon, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
Oregon beat Wisconsin 21–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Oregon wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Oregon was a 98% favorite.
Final
 Wisconsin Badgers | 7 |
|---|---|
 Oregon Ducks | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Oregon about even · −13 Wisconsin
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Wisconsin wins 1, Oregon wins 9.
- 1 WIS 21 ORE 17
- 2 WIS 14 ORE 17
- 3 WIS 7 ORE 12
- 4 WIS 14 ORE 21
- 5 WIS 7 ORE 17
- 6 WIS 0 ORE 13
- 7 WIS 10 ORE 24
- 8 WIS 7 ORE 24
- 9 WIS 0 ORE 21
- 10 WIS 0 ORE 28
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Wisconsin wins 13% of them, Oregon 87%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Oregon by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Wisconsin by 17+ | 0.7% |
| Wisconsin by 9–16 | 2.8% |
| Wisconsin by 1–8 | 8.2% |
| Level after regulation | 4.0% |
| Oregon by 1–8 | 23.5% |
| Oregon by 9–16 | 27.9% |
| Oregon by 17+ | 33.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Wisconsin 7 for 52 yards, Oregon 9 for 75 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:41 | Offside on Wisconsin, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORE +0.9 pts |
| Q1 6:35 | Illegal Snap on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WIS +0.6 pts |
| Q1 0:08 | False Start on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WIS +0.5 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Offside on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WIS +1.0 pts |
| Q2 10:52 | Holding on Wisconsin, 10 yards | +1% ORE +1.1 pts |
| Q2 9:40 | Delay of Game on Wisconsin, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORE +0.4 pts |
| Q2 4:55 | False Start on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WIS +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:55 | Offside on Wisconsin, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORE +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:50 | Encroachment on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WIS +0.8 pts |
| Q3 12:40 | Personal Foul on Oregon, 15 yards | +1% ORE +1.8 pts |
| Q3 12:01 | False Start on Wisconsin, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORE +0.8 pts |
| Q4 14:02 | Pass Interference on Oregon, 15 yards | 0% WIS +2.2 pts |
| Q4 10:35 | Holding on Wisconsin, 10 yards | 0% ORE +1.6 pts |
| Q4 3:29 | Holding on Oregon, 10 yards | 0% WIS +1.5 pts |
| Q4 2:16 | Holding on Oregon, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% WIS +7.0 pts |
| Q4 1:56 | Personal Foul on Wisconsin, 12 yards | 0% ORE +1.5 pts |
When it happened
Oregon’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:40 | Oregon was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +1% WIS | ORE: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 0:08 | Oregon was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedFalse Start on Oregon, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% WIS | ORE: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 12:12 | Wisconsin was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +1% ORE | WIS: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 11:24 | Wisconsin converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +1% WIS | WIS: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 10:52 | Holding on Wisconsin, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +1% ORE | ORE: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 8:06 | Oregon converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +1% ORE | ORE: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 5:27 | Oregon converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +1% ORE | ORE: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 1:07 | Oregon converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +1% ORE | ORE: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Wisconsin 0% · Oregon 100%
- Final margin
- Oregon by 14
- Luck in points
- 3.0 for Wisconsin
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Oregon by 17.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Wisconsin 13% · Oregon 87% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 21 of the 28 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
Wisconsin · 
Oregon
More from Week 9 2025
- Rutgers at Purdue RUTG 27–24 · replay 48% for the winner
- Illinois at Washington WASH 42–25 · replay 58% for the winner
- Northwestern at Nebraska NEB 28–21 · replay 71% for the winner
- Minnesota at Iowa IOWA 41–3 · replay 92% for the winner
- Michigan at Michigan State MICH 31–20 · replay 93% for the winner
- UCLA at Indiana IU 56–6 · replay 100% for the winner
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- BYU at Iowa State BYU 41–27 · replay 26% for the winner
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Auburn at Arkansas AUB 33–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner