luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025

Illinois at Washington, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?

Washington beat Illinois 42–25, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Washington wins 6 of 10.

Before kickoff Washington was a 59% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 2:35 left): Pass Interference on Washington, 15 yards, wiping out the play, worth 14 points of win probability to Illinois.

Final

Illinois Fighting Illini 25
Washington Huskies 42

October 25, 2025 · Husky Stadium · Closing line: Washington −3.5

Luck index +42 Washington lucky · −42 Illinois

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Illinois wins 4, Washington wins 6.

  1. 1 ILL 23 WASH 0
  2. 2 ILL 30 WASH 17
  3. 3 ILL 31 WASH 24
  4. 4 ILL 17 WASH 14
  5. 5 ILL 34 WASH 37
  6. 6 ILL 21 WASH 27
  7. 7 ILL 21 WASH 28
  8. 8 ILL 31 WASH 42
  9. 9 ILL 20 WASH 35
  10. 10 ILL 3 WASH 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Illinois wins 42% of them, Washington 58%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Illinois by 17+7.6%
Illinois by 9–1611.2%
Illinois by 1–822.9%
Level after regulation0.9%
Washington by 1–825.1%
Washington by 9–1620.2%
Washington by 17+12.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 points to Washington: the final margin was Washington by 17, without the luck Washington by 15.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Illinois 6 for 52 yards, Washington 8 for 89 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:35 Holding on Washington, 10 yards +2% ILL +1.1 pts
Q1 9:25 Unnecessary Roughness on Washington, 15 yards +2% ILL +0.9 pts
Q1 4:58 Illegal Formation on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ILL +0.8 pts
Q2 8:19 Pass Interference on Washington, 4 yards +2% ILL +0.9 pts
Q2 2:35 Pass Interference on Washington, 15 yards, wiping out the play +14% ILL +5.2 pts
Q3 13:33 False Start on Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WASH +0.5 pts
Q3 3:05 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Illinois, 15 yards +2% WASH +0.9 pts
Q3 2:23 Holding on Washington, 10 yards +1% ILL +0.6 pts
Q4 14:51 Face Mask on Illinois, 7 yards +1% WASH +1.2 pts
Q4 13:13 Roughing the Passer on Washington, 15 yards, wiping out the play +2% ILL +5.3 pts
Q4 13:03 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Washington, 15 yards +1% ILL +1.0 pts
Q4 10:30 Personal Foul on Illinois, 15 yards +2% WASH +1.6 pts
Q4 7:29 False Start on Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WASH +0.4 pts
Q4 4:21 Running Into the Kicker on Illinois, 5 yards 0% WASH +1.1 pts

When it happened

Washington’s chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Washington was ahead in it, below while Illinois was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:31 Washington converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +6% WASH WASH: Touchdown
2 Q1 5:09 Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +3% WASH ILL: Field goal
3 Q2 14:45 Illinois converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +3% ILL ILL: Touchdown
4 Q2 4:21 Illinois converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +4% ILL ILL: Touchdown
5 Q2 2:35 Pass Interference on Washington, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +14% ILL ILL: Touchdown
6 Q3 13:33 Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedFalse Start on Illinois, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +4% WASH ILL: Punt
7 Q3 8:45 Washington converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +5% WASH WASH: Touchdown
8 Q3 1:13 Washington converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +3% WASH WASH: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Illinois 0% · Washington 100%

Final margin
Washington by 17
Luck in points
1.1 for Washington
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington by 15.9
Replay with same day's form
Illinois 42% · Washington 58% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · Illinois · Washington

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