luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025

Minnesota at Iowa, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?

Iowa beat Minnesota 41–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Iowa wins 9 of 10.

Before kickoff Iowa was a 69% favorite.

Final

Minnesota Golden Gophers 3
Iowa Hawkeyes 41

October 25, 2025 · Kinnick Stadium · Closing line: Iowa −7.5

Luck index +8 Iowa about even · −8 Minnesota

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Minnesota wins 1, Iowa wins 9.

  1. 1 MINN 8 IOWA 3
  2. 2 MINN 7 IOWA 10
  3. 3 MINN 7 IOWA 13
  4. 4 MINN 12 IOWA 20
  5. 5 MINN 2 IOWA 13
  6. 6 MINN 7 IOWA 21
  7. 7 MINN 0 IOWA 17
  8. 8 MINN 0 IOWA 20
  9. 9 MINN 0 IOWA 24
  10. 10 MINN 0 IOWA 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Minnesota wins 8% of them, Iowa 92%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Iowa by 38.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Minnesota by 17+0.2%
Minnesota by 9–161.7%
Minnesota by 1–86.0%
Level after regulation2.7%
Iowa by 1–822.6%
Iowa by 9–1627.6%
Iowa by 17+39.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.3 points to Iowa: the final margin was Iowa by 38, without the luck Iowa by 35.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • D. Stevens, 34 yds made · 84% expected
  • D. Stevens, 46 yds made · 63% expected
  • B. Denaburg, 34 yds made · 81% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Minnesota 2 for 15 yards, Iowa 3 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 6:59 Holding on Minnesota, 10 yards 0% IOWA +0.6 pts
Q2 5:52 False Start on Minnesota, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IOWA +1.3 pts
Q3 3:10 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Iowa, 15 yards 0% MINN +1.6 pts
Q3 1:36 Offside on Iowa, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MINN +0.9 pts
Q3 1:13 Personal Foul on Iowa, 15 yards 0% MINN +1.6 pts

When it happened

Iowa’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Iowa was ahead in it, below while Minnesota was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:10 Iowa converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +3% IOWA IOWA: Touchdown
2 Q1 5:41 Iowa was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +2% MINN IOWA: Field goal
3 Q1 5:03 Iowa converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +2% IOWA IOWA: Field goal
4 Q1 3:24 Iowa was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +1% MINN IOWA: Field goal
5 Q1 3:19 D. Stevens made a 34-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him +1% IOWA IOWA: Touchdown
6 Q1 2:57 Return touchdown by IowaSpecial teams +6% IOWA IOWA: Touchdown
7 Q2 14:53 Iowa converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +1% IOWA IOWA: Touchdown
8 Q2 11:23 Return touchdown by IowaSpecial teams +1% IOWA IOWA: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Minnesota 0% · Iowa 100%

Final margin
Iowa by 38
Luck in points
2.3 for Iowa
Luck-adjusted margin
Iowa by 35.7
Replay with same day's form
Minnesota 8% · Iowa 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · Minnesota · Iowa

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