Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Texas Tech, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Texas Tech beat Arkansas-Pine Bluff 67–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas Tech wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Arkansas-Pine Bluff was a 56% favorite.
Final
 Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions | 7 |
|---|---|
 Texas Tech Red Raiders | 67 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Texas Tech about even · 0 Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arkansas-Pine Bluff wins 0, Texas Tech wins 10.
- 1 UAPB 10 TTU 45
- 2 UAPB 10 TTU 56
- 3 UAPB 14 TTU 66
- 4 UAPB 3 TTU 58
- 5 UAPB 7 TTU 65
- 6 UAPB 9 TTU 70
- 7 UAPB 3 TTU 66
- 8 UAPB 3 TTU 70
- 9 UAPB 0 TTU 70
- 10 UAPB 0 TTU 77
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Arkansas-Pine Bluff wins 0% of them, Texas Tech 100%. The line is what actually happened: Texas Tech by 60.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Texas Tech by 1–8 | 0.4% |
| Texas Tech by 9–16 | 1.5% |
| Texas Tech by 17+ | 98.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- U. Bellenfant, 29 yds made · 87% expected
- S. Harrington, 31 yds made · 85% expected
- T. Ackerman, 47 yds missed · 59% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Arkansas-Pine Bluff 4 for 31 yards, Texas Tech 7 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:12 | Delay of Game on Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TTU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 7:54 | False Start on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UAPB +0.7 pts |
| Q1 4:36 | Holding on Texas Tech, 10 yards | +2% UAPB +1.2 pts |
| Q1 1:30 | Delay of Game on Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TTU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 9:04 | Roughing the Passer on Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 6 yards | 0% TTU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 8:39 | Personal Foul on Texas Tech, 15 yards | 0% UAPB +3.3 pts |
| Q2 3:11 | Offside on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UAPB +0.5 pts |
| Q3 7:51 | Holding on Texas Tech, 10 yards | 0% UAPB +0.6 pts |
| Q4 6:01 | Holding on Texas Tech, 10 yards | 0% UAPB +0.6 pts |
| Q4 4:20 | Pass Interference on Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 15 yards | 0% TTU +0.4 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | Offside on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UAPB +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Texas Tech’s chance of winning
As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:35 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +2% TTU | UAPB: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 10:57 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +2% TTU | UAPB: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 10:19 | Blocked punt by Texas TechSpecial teams | +4% TTU | TTU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 9:17 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +5% UAPB | UAPB: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 7:57 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +2% TTU | UAPB: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 4:52 | Texas Tech converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +2% TTU | TTU: Field goal |
| 7 | Q1 4:36 | Holding on Texas Tech, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +2% UAPB | UAPB: Turnover |
| 8 | Q2 13:58 | Texas Tech converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +2% TTU | TTU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 0% · Texas Tech 100%
- Final margin
- Texas Tech by 60
- Luck in points
- 9.0 for Texas Tech
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas Tech by 51.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Arkansas-Pine Bluff 0% · Texas Tech 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Arkansas-Pine Bluff · 
Texas Tech
More from Week 1 2025
- Nebraska vs Cincinnati NEB 20–17 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa State vs Kansas State ISU 24–21 · replay 31% for the winner
- Auburn at Baylor AUB 38–24 · replay 71% for the winner
- Utah at UCLA UTAH 43–10 · replay 72% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at UCF UCF 17–10 · replay 79% for the winner
- UT Martin at Oklahoma State OKST 27–7 · replay 81% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Colorado GT 27–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- Alabama State at UAB UAB 52–42 · replay 89% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Arizona ARIZ 40–6 · replay 90% for the winner
- North Dakota at Kansas State KSU 38–35 · replay 92% for the winner
- Northern Arizona at Arizona State ASU 38–19 · replay 98% for the winner
- Bethune-Cookman at Florida International FIU 42–9 · replay 98% for the winner