luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · August 28, 2025

Alabama State at UAB, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

UAB beat Alabama State 52–42, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, UAB wins 9 of 10.

Before kickoff UAB was a 92% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:59 left): UAB converted 3rd & 11, worth 9 points of win probability to UAB.

Final

Alabama State Hornets 42
UAB Blazers 52

August 28, 2025 · Protective Stadium · Closing line: UAB −21.5

Luck index +12 UAB about even · −12 Alabama State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Alabama State wins 1, UAB wins 9.

  1. 1 ALST 24 UAB 17
  2. 2 ALST 35 UAB 38
  3. 3 ALST 30 UAB 35
  4. 4 ALST 21 UAB 28
  5. 5 ALST 24 UAB 36
  6. 6 ALST 35 UAB 51
  7. 7 ALST 21 UAB 41
  8. 8 ALST 7 UAB 31
  9. 9 ALST 35 UAB 63
  10. 10 ALST 14 UAB 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Alabama State wins 11% of them, UAB 89%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UAB by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Alabama State by 17+0.9%
Alabama State by 9–162.3%
Alabama State by 1–87.5%
Level after regulation1.1%
UAB by 1–813.9%
UAB by 9–1622.4%
UAB by 17+51.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.4 points to Alabama State: the final margin was UAB by 10, without the luck UAB by 17.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Alabama State 8 for 107 yards, UAB 5 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:45 Offside on Alabama State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UAB +0.8 pts
Q1 4:09 Offside on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ALST +0.4 pts
Q2 0:19 Illegal Forward Pass on Alabama State, 5 yards +1% UAB +0.6 pts
Q3 10:58 Offside on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ALST +0.7 pts
Q3 9:17 Illegal Block on UAB, 10 yards +4% ALST +1.3 pts
Q3 2:39 Pass Interference on UAB, 15 yards +7% ALST +2.6 pts
Q3 1:01 Ineligible Downfield on Alabama State, 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% UAB +1.6 pts
Q4 6:41 Personal Foul on Alabama State, 63 yards +1% UAB +0.1 pts
Q4 5:37 Holding on Alabama State, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% UAB +2.3 pts
Q4 4:28 False Start on Alabama State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UAB +0.4 pts
Q4 2:29 Pass Interference on Alabama State, 14 yards +3% UAB +2.8 pts
Q4 1:54 Offside on Alabama State, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% ALST 0.0 pts
Q4 1:31 False Start on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ALST +1.6 pts

When it happened

UAB’s chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while UAB was ahead in it, below while Alabama State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 10:10 Alabama State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +8% ALST ALST: Punt
2 Q3 9:17 Illegal Block on UAB, 10 yardsJudgment calls +4% ALST ALST: Punt
3 Q3 7:59 UAB converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +9% UAB UAB: Touchdown
4 Q3 2:39 Pass Interference on UAB, 15 yardsJudgment calls +7% ALST ALST: Turnover
5 Q4 11:03 UAB was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +3% ALST UAB: Touchdown
6 Q4 10:43 UAB converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +6% UAB UAB: Touchdown
7 Q4 4:18 Alabama State converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +5% ALST ALST: End of game
8 Q4 3:17 UAB converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +7% UAB UAB: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Alabama State 0% · UAB 100%

Final margin
UAB by 10
Luck in points
7.4 for Alabama State
Luck-adjusted margin
UAB by 17.4
Replay with same day's form
Alabama State 11% · UAB 89% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

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