luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · August 29, 2025

Bethune-Cookman at Florida International, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

Florida International beat Bethune-Cookman 42–9, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Florida International wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Florida International was a 96% favorite.

Final

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats 9
Florida International Panthers 42

August 29, 2025 · Pitbull Stadium · Closing line: Florida International −26.5

Luck index +2 Florida International about even · −2 Bethune-Cookman

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bethune-Cookman wins 0, Florida International wins 10.

  1. 1 BCU 10 FIU 14
  2. 2 BCU 14 FIU 25
  3. 3 BCU 0 FIU 16
  4. 4 BCU 3 FIU 23
  5. 5 BCU 0 FIU 23
  6. 6 BCU 7 FIU 34
  7. 7 BCU 7 FIU 37
  8. 8 BCU 7 FIU 40
  9. 9 BCU 14 FIU 52
  10. 10 BCU 3 FIU 49

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bethune-Cookman wins 2% of them, Florida International 98%. The line is what actually happened: Florida International by 33.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bethune-Cookman by 17+0.1%
Bethune-Cookman by 9–160.3%
Bethune-Cookman by 1–81.1%
Level after regulation0.3%
Florida International by 1–85.3%
Florida International by 9–1611.6%
Florida International by 17+81.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.5 points to Florida International: the final margin was Florida International by 33, without the luck Florida International by 29.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Dominguez, 35 yds made · 80% expected
  • J. Dominguez, 22 yds made · 93% expected
  • N. Grant, 44 yds missed · 65% expected
  • J. Dominguez, 28 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bethune-Cookman 7 for 55 yards, Florida International 6 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:46 False Start on Bethune-Cookman, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FIU +0.7 pts
Q1 9:08 False Start on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BCU +0.7 pts
Q1 8:34 False Start on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FIU +0.8 pts
Q1 4:58 Personal Foul on Bethune-Cookman, 15 yards +1% FIU +2.3 pts
Q1 4:27 Ineligible Downfield on Florida International, 5 yards 0% BCU +1.1 pts
Q1 0:42 Offside on Bethune-Cookman, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FIU +0.9 pts
Q2 14:49 Delay of Game on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BCU +0.8 pts
Q2 14:09 Holding on Bethune-Cookman, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% FIU +2.8 pts
Q2 5:17 Delay of Game on Bethune-Cookman, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FIU +0.5 pts
Q2 1:22 Holding on Florida International, 10 yards 0% BCU +0.6 pts
Q3 3:48 Ineligible Downfield on Florida International, 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% BCU +1.4 pts
Q4 11:54 Face Mask on Bethune-Cookman, 15 yards 0% FIU +0.8 pts
Q4 7:01 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Bethune-Cookman, 0 yards 0% FIU 0.0 pts

When it happened

Florida International’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Florida International was ahead in it, below while Bethune-Cookman was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:24 Bethune-Cookman converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +2% BCU BCU: Field goal
2 Q1 12:19 Bethune-Cookman was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +1% FIU BCU: Field goal
3 Q1 7:55 Bethune-Cookman fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +1% BCU BCU: Punt
4 Q1 4:58 Personal Foul on Bethune-Cookman, 15 yardsJudgment calls +1% FIU FIU: Touchdown
5 Q1 4:27 Ineligible Downfield on Florida International, 5 yardsJudgment calls +0% BCU BCU: Punt
6 Q1 1:02 Florida International converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +0% FIU FIU: Touchdown
7 Q2 14:09 Holding on Bethune-Cookman, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +1% FIU FIU: Touchdown
8 Q2 12:09 Florida International converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +0% FIU FIU: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bethune-Cookman 0% · Florida International 100%

Final margin
Florida International by 33
Luck in points
3.5 for Florida International
Luck-adjusted margin
Florida International by 29.5
Replay with same day's form
Bethune-Cookman 2% · Florida International 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Bethune-Cookman · Florida International

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