Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Alabama A&M at Arkansas, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Arkansas beat Alabama A&M 52–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Arkansas wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Arkansas was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Alabama A&M Bulldogs | 7 |
|---|---|
 Arkansas Razorbacks | 52 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Arkansas about even · 0 Alabama A&M
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Alabama A&M wins 0, Arkansas wins 10.
- 1 AAMU 19 ARK 28
- 2 AAMU 12 ARK 31
- 3 AAMU 3 ARK 27
- 4 AAMU 24 ARK 52
- 5 AAMU 17 ARK 48
- 6 AAMU 7 ARK 41
- 7 AAMU 13 ARK 51
- 8 AAMU 14 ARK 54
- 9 AAMU 0 ARK 45
- 10 AAMU 0 ARK 54
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Alabama A&M wins 0% of them, Arkansas 100%. The line is what actually happened: Arkansas by 45.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Alabama A&M by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Alabama A&M by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Alabama A&M by 1–8 | 0.2% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Arkansas by 1–8 | 1.8% |
| Arkansas by 9–16 | 5.1% |
| Arkansas by 17+ | 92.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
Penalties: Alabama A&M 7 for 42 yards, Arkansas 3 for 20 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:37 | False Start on Alabama A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARK +0.7 pts |
| Q1 7:58 | False Start on Alabama A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARK +0.5 pts |
| Q1 3:02 | False Start on Alabama A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARK +1.4 pts |
| Q1 1:44 | False Start on Alabama A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARK +1.4 pts |
| Q1 1:04 | False Start on Arkansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% AAMU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 12:04 | False Start on Alabama A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARK +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:40 | Holding on Alabama A&M, 10 yards | 0% ARK +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:24 | Holding on Arkansas, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% AAMU +5.6 pts |
| Q3 7:18 | Pass Interference on Alabama A&M, 7 yards | 0% ARK +0.3 pts |
| Q4 7:36 | False Start on Arkansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% AAMU +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Arkansas’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 4:13 | Arkansas was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +0% AAMU | ARK: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 3:02 | False Start on Alabama A&M, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% ARK | ARK: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 1:44 | Alabama A&M was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedFalse Start on Alabama A&M, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% ARK | AAMU: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 13:41 | Arkansas converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +0% ARK | ARK: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 8:39 | Arkansas converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +0% ARK | ARK: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 5:59 | Arkansas was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +0% AAMU | ARK: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 3:41 | Arkansas converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +0% ARK | ARK: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 0:24 | Holding on Arkansas, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% AAMU | AAMU: End of half |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Alabama A&M 0% · Arkansas 100%
- Final margin
- Arkansas by 45
- Luck in points
- 17.2 for Arkansas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arkansas by 27.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Alabama A&M 0% · Arkansas 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Alabama A&M · 
Arkansas
More from Week 1 2025
- Texas at Ohio State OSU 14–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- Virginia Tech vs South Carolina SC 24–11 · replay 51% for the winner
- LSU at Clemson LSU 17–10 · replay 59% for the winner
- Auburn at Baylor AUB 38–24 · replay 71% for the winner
- Syracuse vs Tennessee TENN 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner
- Alabama State at UAB UAB 52–42 · replay 89% for the winner
- UTSA at Texas A&M TA&M 42–24 · replay 91% for the winner
- Alabama at Florida State FSU 31–17 · replay 92% for the winner
- Toledo at Kentucky UK 24–16 · replay 94% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Southern Miss MSST 34–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Bethune-Cookman at Florida International FIU 42–9 · replay 98% for the winner
- Central Arkansas at Missouri MIZ 61–6 · replay 99% for the winner