Central Arkansas at Missouri, Week 1 2025: who deserved it?

Final

Central Arkansas Bears	6
Missouri Tigers	61

August 28, 2025 · Memorial Stadium · Closing line: Missouri −39.5

Replay with same day's form

Luck index +1 Missouri about even · −1 Central Arkansas

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Central Arkansas wins 0, Missouri wins 10.

1 CARK 20 MIZ 28
2 CARK 17 MIZ 34
3 CARK 14 MIZ 35
4 CARK 9 MIZ 35
5 CARK 7 MIZ 38
6 CARK 10 MIZ 44
7 CARK 0 MIZ 38
8 CARK 14 MIZ 56
9 CARK 14 MIZ 61
10 CARK 0 MIZ 56

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

Before kickoff

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

Same teams, fresh game

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Central Arkansas wins 1% of them, Missouri 99%. The line is what actually happened: Missouri by 55.

Actual: Missouri by 55 494235282114707142128354249 ← Central Arkansas win by Missouri win by →

Show as a table

Final margin in the replays	Share of replays
Central Arkansas by 17+	0.0%
Central Arkansas by 9–16	0.1%
Central Arkansas by 1–8	0.5%
Level after regulation	0.0%
Missouri by 1–8	1.5%
Missouri by 9–16	5.9%
Missouri by 17+	91.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

3rd & 4th downs +1% MIZ

All luck +1% MIZ

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.7 points to Missouri: the final margin was Missouri by 55, without the luck Missouri by 48.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

B. Craig, 49 yds made · 56% expected
B. Craig, 55 yds made · 46% expected

Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Central Arkansas 4 for 55 yards, Missouri 7 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

When	Flag	Win probability for
Q1 14:28	Holding on Central Arkansas, 10 yards	0% MIZ +0.9 pts
Q1 9:23	Pass Interference on Missouri, 15 yards	0% CARK +1.2 pts
Q1 6:51	False Start on Missouri, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% CARK +0.8 pts
Q2 14:30	Holding on Missouri, 10 yards, wiping out the play	0% CARK +2.0 pts
Q2 3:28	Penalty on Missouri, 2 yards	0% CARK +0.1 pts
Q2 0:56	False Start on Missouri, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% CARK +0.3 pts
Q3 14:50	Penalty on Missouri, 10 yards	0% CARK +0.6 pts
Q3 11:18	Holding on Central Arkansas, 20 yards	0% MIZ +1.2 pts
Q3 10:50	Pass Interference on Missouri, 8 yards	0% CARK +0.1 pts
Q4 11:00	Illegal Block on Central Arkansas, 10 yards	0% MIZ +0.6 pts
Q4 2:43	Personal Foul on Central Arkansas, 15 yards	0% MIZ +0.9 pts

When it happened

Missouri’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Missouri 50% Central Arkansas Q1Q2Q3Q4 235678

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Missouri was ahead in it, below while Central Arkansas was.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for	Next drive
1	Q1 11:14	Missouri converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 54% expected	+0% MIZ	MIZ: Touchdown
2	Q1 11:06	Missouri’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected	+0% CARK	MIZ: Field goal
3	Q1 9:23	Pass Interference on Missouri, 15 yardsJudgment calls	+0% CARK	CARK: Punt
4	Q1 3:00	Missouri was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 33% expected	+0% CARK	MIZ: Field goal
5	Q1 2:22	B. Craig made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 56% expected for him, 6 of 13 from 45+ before	+0% MIZ	MIZ: Field goal
6	Q2 14:30	Holding on Missouri, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls	+0% CARK	CARK: Punt
7	Q2 9:33	B. Craig made a 55-yard field goalKicks · 46% expected for him, 7 of 14 from 45+ before	+0% MIZ	MIZ: Touchdown
8	Q4 0:22	Central Arkansas’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected	+1% MIZ	–

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Central Arkansas 0% · Missouri 100%

Final margin: Missouri by 55
Luck in points: 6.7 for Missouri
Luck-adjusted margin: Missouri by 48.3
Replay with same day's form: Central Arkansas 1% · Missouri 99% unchanged: why

How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

3rd & 4th downs 50%Fumble bounces 100%Kicks 100%Judgment calls 0%Pre-snap flags 100%Special teams 0%

What counts Referee calls Momentum after a lucky break none

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

Missouri converted 3rd & 4Q1 11:14
Missouri’s two-point try failedQ1 11:06
Pass Interference on Missouri, 15 yardsQ1 9:23
Missouri was stopped on 3rd & 10Q1 3:00
B. Craig made a 49-yard field goalQ1 2:22
Holding on Missouri, 10 yards, wiping out the playQ2 14:30
B. Craig made a 55-yard field goalQ2 9:33
Central Arkansas’s two-point try failedQ4 0:22

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Central Arkansas · Missouri

More from Week 1 2025

Tarleton State at Army TAR 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
Texas at Ohio State OSU 14–7 · replay 38% for the winner
Virginia Tech vs South Carolina SC 24–11 · replay 51% for the winner
LSU at Clemson LSU 17–10 · replay 59% for the winner
Auburn at Baylor AUB 38–24 · replay 71% for the winner
Syracuse vs Tennessee TENN 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner
UTSA at Texas A&M TA&M 42–24 · replay 91% for the winner
Alabama at Florida State FSU 31–17 · replay 92% for the winner
Austin Peay at Middle Tennessee APSU 34–14 · replay 92% for the winner
Toledo at Kentucky UK 24–16 · replay 94% for the winner
Mississippi State at Southern Miss MSST 34–17 · replay 96% for the winner
Abilene Christian at Tulsa TLSA 35–7 · replay 99% for the winner

Every week 1 game, 2025