Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025
Wisconsin at Michigan, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
Michigan beat Wisconsin 24–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Michigan wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Michigan was an 87% favorite.
Final
 Wisconsin Badgers | 10 |
|---|---|
 Michigan Wolverines | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Michigan about even · −11 Wisconsin
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Wisconsin wins 1, Michigan wins 9.
- 1 WIS 17 MICH 10
- 2 WIS 20 MICH 23
- 3 WIS 35 MICH 41
- 4 WIS 12 MICH 20
- 5 WIS 7 MICH 19
- 6 WIS 14 MICH 31
- 7 WIS 0 MICH 20
- 8 WIS 17 MICH 41
- 9 WIS 6 MICH 34
- 10 WIS 7 MICH 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Wisconsin wins 11% of them, Michigan 89%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Michigan by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Wisconsin by 17+ | 0.9% |
| Wisconsin by 9–16 | 2.3% |
| Wisconsin by 1–8 | 6.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.5% |
| Michigan by 1–8 | 13.7% |
| Michigan by 9–16 | 19.6% |
| Michigan by 17+ | 55.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Zvada, 40 yds made · 78% expected
- D. Zvada, 27 yds missed · 95% expected
- N. Vakos, 39 yds made · 72% expected
Penalties: Wisconsin 5 for 35 yards, Michigan 1 for 10 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:02 | Pass Interference on Wisconsin, 15 yards | +2% MICH +1.4 pts |
| Q1 3:05 | Offside on Wisconsin, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MICH +1.0 pts |
| Q3 12:39 | Holding on Michigan, 10 yards | +2% WIS +1.2 pts |
| Q3 4:06 | Holding on Wisconsin, 10 yards | +2% MICH +0.6 pts |
| Q4 9:37 | Offside on Wisconsin, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% MICH 0.0 pts |
| Q4 3:51 | False Start on Wisconsin, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MICH +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Michigan’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:10 | Wisconsin converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +4% WIS | WIS: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 8:02 | Pass Interference on Wisconsin, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% MICH | MICH: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 4:37 | Wisconsin converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +3% WIS | WIS: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 14:47 | Wisconsin was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +2% MICH | WIS: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 12:48 | Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +2% WIS | MICH: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 11:04 | Michigan converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedMichigan fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% MICH | MICH: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q3 9:26 | D. Zvada missed a 27-yard field goalKicks · 95% expected for him | +5% WIS | MICH: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 7:01 | Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +3% WIS | MICH: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Wisconsin 2% · Michigan 98%
- Final margin
- Michigan by 14
- Luck in points
- 2.5 for Michigan
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Michigan by 11.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Wisconsin 11% · Michigan 89% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Wisconsin · 
Michigan
More from Week 6 2025
- Penn State at UCLA UCLA 42–37 · replay 59% for the winner
- Illinois at Purdue ILL 43–27 · replay 76% for the winner
- Michigan State at Nebraska NEB 38–27 · replay 79% for the winner
- Washington at Maryland WASH 24–20 · replay 83% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Northwestern NU 42–7 · replay 94% for the winner
- Minnesota at Ohio State OSU 42–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner
- UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner