Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025
Minnesota at Ohio State, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
Ohio State beat Minnesota 42–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Ohio State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Ohio State was a 94% favorite.
Final
 Minnesota Golden Gophers | 3 |
|---|---|
 Ohio State Buckeyes | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Ohio State about even · 0 Minnesota
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Minnesota wins 0, Ohio State wins 10.
- 1 MINN 21 OSU 38
- 2 MINN 0 OSU 24
- 3 MINN 14 OSU 42
- 4 MINN 3 OSU 35
- 5 MINN 3 OSU 38
- 6 MINN 0 OSU 38
- 7 MINN 7 OSU 48
- 8 MINN 0 OSU 45
- 9 MINN 0 OSU 49
- 10 MINN 0 OSU 56
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Minnesota wins 0% of them, Ohio State 100%. The line is what actually happened: Ohio State by 39.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Minnesota by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Minnesota by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Minnesota by 1–8 | 0.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Ohio State by 1–8 | 0.8% |
| Ohio State by 9–16 | 2.6% |
| Ohio State by 17+ | 96.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- B. Denaburg, 27 yds made · 89% expected
- J. Fielding, 53 yds missed · 50% expected
- B. Denaburg, 41 yds missed · 70% expected
Penalties: Minnesota 1 for 5 yards, Ohio State 4 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 3:29 | False Start on Ohio State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MINN +0.5 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Delay of Game on Minnesota, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OSU +0.2 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Holding on Ohio State, 10 yards | 0% MINN +1.6 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | False Start on Ohio State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MINN +1.3 pts |
| Q4 14:55 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Ohio State, 15 yards | 0% MINN +1.3 pts |
When it happened
Ohio State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 15:00 | Minnesota converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedMinnesota was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +2% MINN | MINN: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 8:05 | Ohio State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedB. Denaburg made a 27-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him | +0% MINN | OSU: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q1 4:38 | J. Fielding missed a 53-yard field goalKicks · 50% expected for him, 5 of 9 from 45+ before | +2% MINN | OSU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 3:41 | Ohio State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 81% expected | +0% OSU | OSU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 15:00 | Minnesota was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +1% OSU | MINN: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 11:01 | Ohio State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedMinnesota was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +1% OSU | OSU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 8:12 | Minnesota was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +1% OSU | MINN: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 15:00 | Ohio State was stopped on 3rd & 223rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedHolding on Ohio State, 10 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on Ohio State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% MINN | OSU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Minnesota 0% · Ohio State 100%
- Final margin
- Ohio State by 39
- Luck in points
- 6.1 for Ohio State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ohio State by 32.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Minnesota 0% · Ohio State 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Minnesota · 
Ohio State
More from Week 6 2025
- Penn State at UCLA UCLA 42–37 · replay 59% for the winner
- Illinois at Purdue ILL 43–27 · replay 76% for the winner
- Michigan State at Nebraska NEB 38–27 · replay 79% for the winner
- Washington at Maryland WASH 24–20 · replay 83% for the winner
- Wisconsin at Michigan MICH 24–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Northwestern NU 42–7 · replay 94% for the winner
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner
- UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner