Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
Arkansas at LSU, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
LSU beat Arkansas 23–22, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, LSU wins 6 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 23 points of win probability to LSU.
Before kickoff LSU was a 60% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:08 left): S. Starzyk missed a 48-yard field goal, worth 12 points of win probability to LSU.
Final
 Arkansas Razorbacks | 22 |
|---|---|
 LSU Tigers | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +41 LSU lucky · −41 Arkansas
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arkansas wins 4, LSU wins 6.
- 1 ARK 30 LSU 7
- 2 ARK 21 LSU 10
- 3 ARK 31 LSU 24
- 4 ARK 13 LSU 10
- 5 ARK 17 LSU 19
- 6 ARK 17 LSU 22
- 7 ARK 19 LSU 28
- 8 ARK 14 LSU 26
- 9 ARK 7 LSU 23
- 10 ARK 3 LSU 25
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Arkansas wins 41% of them, LSU 59%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: LSU by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arkansas by 17+ | 8.6% |
| Arkansas by 9–16 | 12.6% |
| Arkansas by 1–8 | 19.8% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| LSU by 1–8 | 25.0% |
| LSU by 9–16 | 17.3% |
| LSU by 17+ | 14.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Ramos, 50 yds made · 56% expected
- D. Ramos, 42 yds made · 71% expected
- D. Ramos, 42 yds made · 72% expected
- S. Starzyk, 48 yds missed · 59% expected
Penalties: Arkansas 5 for 40 yards, LSU 7 for 57 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 5:24 | False Start on LSU, 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARK +0.5 pts |
| Q2 5:07 | False Start on Arkansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LSU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 2:01 | Offside on Arkansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LSU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Pass Interference on LSU, 15 yards | +1% ARK +1.0 pts |
| Q2 0:22 | Pass Interference on Arkansas, 15 yards | +1% LSU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 10:23 | Offside on LSU, 3 yards · pre-snap | +2% ARK +0.7 pts |
| Q3 5:20 | Intentional Grounding on Arkansas, 0 yards | 0% LSU 0.0 pts |
| Q3 4:31 | Face Mask on LSU, 10 yards | +5% ARK +1.3 pts |
| Q3 3:26 | Holding on LSU, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% ARK +2.2 pts |
| Q4 9:48 | Holding on LSU, 10 yards | +3% ARK +0.6 pts |
| Q4 9:29 | Face Mask on Arkansas, 15 yards | +4% LSU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 5:08 | False Start on LSU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% ARK +0.5 pts |
When it happened
LSU’s chance of winning
As low as 21% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:58 | Return touchdown by ArkansasSpecial teams | +10% ARK | ARK: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 8:57 | Arkansas was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +10% LSU | ARK: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 3:26 | Holding on LSU, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +8% ARK | ARK: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 11:42 | LSU converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +10% LSU | LSU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 7:53 | LSU converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +10% LSU | LSU: End of game |
| 6 | Q4 5:13 | Arkansas was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +10% LSU | ARK: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q4 5:08 | S. Starzyk missed a 48-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 3 of 5 from 45+ beforeFalse Start on LSU, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +12% LSU | – |
| 8 | Q4 1:45 | LSU converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +8% LSU | LSU: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arkansas 98% · LSU 2%
- Final margin
- LSU by 1
- Luck in points
- 14.0 for LSU
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arkansas by 13.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Arkansas 41% · LSU 59% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Arkansas · 
LSU
More from Week 12 2025
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Florida at Ole Miss MISS 34–24 · replay 74% for the winner
- South Carolina at Texas A&M TA&M 31–30 · replay 85% for the winner
- Tennessee Tech at Kentucky UK 42–10 · replay 97% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Missouri MIZ 49–27 · replay 97% for the winner
- Texas at Georgia UGA 35–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Tennessee TENN 42–9 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner