Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
South Carolina at Texas A&M, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
Texas A&M beat South Carolina 31–30, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas A&M wins 9 of 10. South Carolina had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 20 points of win probability to South Carolina.
Before kickoff Texas A&M was an 86% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 11:22 left): Holding on Texas A&M, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 21 points of win probability to South Carolina.
Final
 South Carolina Gamecocks | 30 |
|---|---|
 Texas A&M Aggies | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +15 Texas A&M about even · −15 South Carolina
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. South Carolina wins 1, Texas A&M wins 9.
- 1 SC 30 TA&M 20
- 2 SC 38 TA&M 41
- 3 SC 24 TA&M 30
- 4 SC 21 TA&M 31
- 5 SC 20 TA&M 34
- 6 SC 13 TA&M 31
- 7 SC 27 TA&M 51
- 8 SC 7 TA&M 35
- 9 SC 6 TA&M 41
- 10 SC 10 TA&M 54
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
South Carolina wins 15% of them, Texas A&M 85%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texas A&M by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| South Carolina by 17+ | 2.4% |
| South Carolina by 9–16 | 3.9% |
| South Carolina by 1–8 | 8.1% |
| Level after regulation | 1.4% |
| Texas A&M by 1–8 | 13.7% |
| Texas A&M by 9–16 | 17.4% |
| Texas A&M by 17+ | 53.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- W. Joyce, 36 yds made · 79% expected
- R. Bond, 40 yds made · 74% expected
- R. Bond, 45 yds missed · 65% expected
- W. Joyce, 41 yds made · 71% expected
- R. Bond, 24 yds missed · 93% expected
- W. Joyce, 35 yds made · 81% expected
Penalties: South Carolina 6 for 66 yards, Texas A&M 6 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:23 | Offside on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SC +0.8 pts |
| Q1 7:17 | Chop Block on South Carolina, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +5% TA&M +3.3 pts |
| Q2 13:09 | Pass Interference on Texas A&M, 15 yards | +4% SC +1.5 pts |
| Q2 6:16 | Pass Interference on South Carolina, 8 yards | +4% TA&M +1.5 pts |
| Q2 4:10 | Block Below the Waist on South Carolina, 15 yards | +3% TA&M +1.4 pts |
| Q2 0:11 | Holding on South Carolina, 10 yards | 0% TA&M +1.4 pts |
| Q3 14:54 | Holding on Texas A&M, 10 yards | +1% SC +0.6 pts |
| Q3 12:48 | Holding on Texas A&M, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% SC +4.2 pts |
| Q3 11:54 | Illegal Substitution on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TA&M +0.9 pts |
| Q3 2:42 | Holding on Texas A&M, 10 yards | +3% SC +0.9 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Pass Interference on South Carolina, 13 yards | +5% TA&M +1.3 pts |
| Q4 11:22 | Holding on Texas A&M, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +21% SC +4.3 pts |
When it happened
Texas A&M’s chance of winning
As low as 5% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 2:30 | R. Bond missed a 45-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 13 of 23 from 45+ before | +6% SC | TA&M: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 2:20 | R. Bond missed a 24-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him | +9% SC | TA&M: Turnover |
| 3 | Q3 12:48 | Holding on Texas A&M, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% SC | SC: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q4 12:29 | Texas A&M converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +6% TA&M | TA&M: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 11:22 | Holding on Texas A&M, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +21% SC | SC: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 3:10 | Texas A&M fumbled and South Carolina recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +14% SC | TA&M: End of game |
| 7 | Q4 2:26 | South Carolina converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +18% SC | SC: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 1:07 | South Carolina was stopped on 4th & 163rd & 4th downs · 15% expected | +6% TA&M | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
South Carolina 4% · Texas A&M 96%
- Final margin
- Texas A&M by 1
- Luck in points
- 10.8 for South Carolina
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas A&M by 11.8
- Replay with same day's form
- South Carolina 15% · Texas A&M 85% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
South Carolina · 
Texas A&M
More from Week 12 2025
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Arkansas at LSU LSU 23–22 · replay 59% for the winner
- Florida at Ole Miss MISS 34–24 · replay 74% for the winner
- Tennessee Tech at Kentucky UK 42–10 · replay 97% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Missouri MIZ 49–27 · replay 97% for the winner
- Texas at Georgia UGA 35–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Tennessee TENN 42–9 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner