Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
Tennessee Tech at Kentucky, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
Kentucky beat Tennessee Tech 42–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Kentucky wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Kentucky was a 93% favorite.
Final
 Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles | 10 |
|---|---|
 Kentucky Wildcats | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Kentucky about even · −3 Tennessee Tech
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Tennessee Tech wins 0, Kentucky wins 10.
- 1 TNTC 16 UK 20
- 2 TNTC 13 UK 21
- 3 TNTC 17 UK 31
- 4 TNTC 10 UK 27
- 5 TNTC 3 UK 24
- 6 TNTC 21 UK 45
- 7 TNTC 7 UK 34
- 8 TNTC 10 UK 41
- 9 TNTC 3 UK 38
- 10 TNTC 0 UK 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Tennessee Tech wins 3% of them, Kentucky 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Kentucky by 32.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Tennessee Tech by 17+ | 0.2% |
| Tennessee Tech by 9–16 | 0.5% |
| Tennessee Tech by 1–8 | 1.9% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Kentucky by 1–8 | 6.2% |
| Kentucky by 9–16 | 11.7% |
| Kentucky by 17+ | 78.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. LeBlanc, 32 yds missed · 81% expected
- D. LeBlanc, 38 yds made · 72% expected
Penalties: Tennessee Tech 6 for 48 yards, Kentucky 3 for 20 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:07 | False Start on Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TNTC +0.3 pts |
| Q2 10:50 | Holding on Kentucky, 10 yards | 0% TNTC +1.7 pts |
| Q2 4:12 | Illegal Substitution on Tennessee Tech, 4 yards · pre-snap | 0% UK +0.2 pts |
| Q2 1:10 | Personal Foul on Tennessee Tech, 15 yards | 0% UK +0.9 pts |
| Q3 9:30 | Delay of Game on Tennessee Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TNTC +0.2 pts |
| Q4 12:52 | Offside on Tennessee Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UK +0.7 pts |
| Q4 7:23 | False Start on Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TNTC +0.8 pts |
| Q4 5:37 | Pass Interference on Tennessee Tech, 14 yards | 0% UK +0.5 pts |
| Q4 1:29 | Illegal Substitution on Tennessee Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UK +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Kentucky’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:35 | Tennessee Tech was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +1% UK | TNTC: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 12:18 | Kentucky converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 82% expected | +0% UK | UK: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 5:15 | Tennessee Tech was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +1% UK | TNTC: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 12:44 | Tennessee Tech was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +0% UK | TNTC: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q2 12:10 | D. LeBlanc missed a 32-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him | +1% UK | TNTC: Turnover |
| 6 | Q2 10:50 | Holding on Kentucky, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% TNTC | TNTC: Turnover |
| 7 | Q2 9:46 | Kentucky was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +0% TNTC | UK: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 1:18 | Tennessee Tech converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +0% TNTC | TNTC: End of half |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Tennessee Tech 0% · Kentucky 100%
- Final margin
- Kentucky by 32
- Luck in points
- 0.5 for Tennessee Tech
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kentucky by 32.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Tennessee Tech 3% · Kentucky 97% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Tennessee Tech · 
Kentucky
More from Week 12 2025
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Arkansas at LSU LSU 23–22 · replay 59% for the winner
- Florida at Ole Miss MISS 34–24 · replay 74% for the winner
- South Carolina at Texas A&M TA&M 31–30 · replay 85% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Missouri MIZ 49–27 · replay 97% for the winner
- Texas at Georgia UGA 35–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Tennessee TENN 42–9 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner