Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025
Vanderbilt at Texas, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
Texas beat Vanderbilt 34–31, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff Texas was a 59% favorite.
Final
 Vanderbilt Commodores | 31 |
|---|---|
 Texas Longhorns | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Texas lucky · −26 Vanderbilt
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Vanderbilt wins 3, Texas wins 7.
- 1 VAN 35 TEX 21
- 2 VAN 31 TEX 24
- 3 VAN 27 TEX 23
- 4 VAN 21 TEX 24
- 5 VAN 24 TEX 30
- 6 VAN 21 TEX 28
- 7 VAN 13 TEX 24
- 8 VAN 27 TEX 42
- 9 VAN 7 TEX 27
- 10 VAN 14 TEX 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Vanderbilt wins 26% of them, Texas 74%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texas by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Vanderbilt by 17+ | 3.7% |
| Vanderbilt by 9–16 | 6.9% |
| Vanderbilt by 1–8 | 12.1% |
| Level after regulation | 3.3% |
| Texas by 1–8 | 24.5% |
| Texas by 9–16 | 17.1% |
| Texas by 17+ | 32.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Shipley, 39 yds made · 75% expected
- B. Taylor, 44 yds made · 70% expected
- B. Taylor, 48 yds missed · 63% expected
- M. Shipley, 37 yds made · 79% expected
- M. Shipley, 51 yds missed · 54% expected
Penalties: Vanderbilt 8 for 70 yards, Texas 9 for 70 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:48 | Delay of Game on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% VAN +0.4 pts |
| Q1 10:28 | Illegal Forward Pass on Vanderbilt, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +6% TEX +3.7 pts |
| Q1 7:41 | Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yards | +3% TEX +1.8 pts |
| Q1 0:35 | Offside on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% VAN +0.8 pts |
| Q2 11:16 | Offside on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEX +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:03 | Illegal Substitution on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEX +0.3 pts |
| Q3 14:46 | Offside on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% VAN +1.0 pts |
| Q3 7:55 | Face Mask on Texas, 15 yards | +1% VAN +1.6 pts |
| Q3 7:32 | Personal Foul on Texas, 15 yards | +1% VAN +1.6 pts |
| Q3 7:09 | False Start on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEX +0.6 pts |
| Q3 4:48 | Pass Interference on Vanderbilt, 15 yards | +1% TEX +3.2 pts |
| Q3 1:38 | Holding on Texas, 10 yards | 0% VAN +1.0 pts |
| Q4 14:37 | Delay of Game on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% VAN +1.0 pts |
| Q4 3:48 | Face Mask on Vanderbilt, 15 yards | +1% TEX +1.6 pts |
| Q4 3:16 | False Start on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% VAN +0.7 pts |
| Q4 3:10 | False Start on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% VAN +0.3 pts |
| Q4 0:58 | Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yards | +3% TEX +1.3 pts |
When it happened
Texas’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:46 | Vanderbilt fumbled and Texas recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% TEX | VAN: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 10:28 | Illegal Forward Pass on Vanderbilt, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% TEX | TEX: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 7:41 | Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +3% TEX | TEX: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 14:07 | Vanderbilt converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +3% VAN | VAN: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 0:11 | Vanderbilt converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +2% VAN | VAN: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 14:41 | Vanderbilt was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +2% TEX | VAN: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 13:24 | Texas converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +2% TEX | TEX: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:58 | Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +3% TEX | TEX: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Vanderbilt 13% · Texas 87%
- Final margin
- Texas by 3
- Luck in points
- 4.6 for Vanderbilt
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas by 7.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Vanderbilt 26% · Texas 74% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
Vanderbilt · 
Texas
More from Week 10 2025
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Georgia vs Florida UGA 24–20 · replay 66% for the winner
- Kentucky at Auburn UK 10–3 · replay 71% for the winner
- South Carolina at Ole Miss MISS 30–14 · replay 86% for the winner
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
- Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at NC State NCSU 48–36 · replay 35% for the winner
- Michigan State at Minnesota MINN 23–20 · replay 41% for the winner
- West Virginia at Houston WVU 45–35 · replay 42% for the winner