Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 35 of the 44 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
South Carolina at Ole Miss, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
Ole Miss beat South Carolina 30–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Ole Miss wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Ole Miss was a 79% favorite.
Final
 South Carolina Gamecocks | 14 |
|---|---|
 Ole Miss Rebels | 30 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +14 Ole Miss about even · −14 South Carolina
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. South Carolina wins 1, Ole Miss wins 9.
- 1 SC 10 MISS 3
- 2 SC 17 MISS 20
- 3 SC 7 MISS 13
- 4 SC 10 MISS 20
- 5 SC 14 MISS 27
- 6 SC 7 MISS 23
- 7 SC 7 MISS 25
- 8 SC 5 MISS 27
- 9 SC 0 MISS 26
- 10 SC 7 MISS 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
South Carolina wins 14% of them, Ole Miss 86%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ole Miss by 16.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| South Carolina by 17+ | 1.6% |
| South Carolina by 9–16 | 4.4% |
| South Carolina by 1–8 | 8.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Ole Miss by 1–8 | 19.9% |
| Ole Miss by 9–16 | 18.5% |
| Ole Miss by 17+ | 45.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Carneiro, 21 yds missed · 96% expected
- L. Carneiro, 27 yds missed · 91% expected
- L. Carneiro, 34 yds missed · 82% expected
Penalties: South Carolina 4 for 20 yards, Ole Miss 5 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:19 | Illegal Formation on Ole Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SC +1.1 pts |
| Q2 6:15 | Pass Interference on Ole Miss, 15 yards | +2% SC +1.9 pts |
| Q2 3:34 | Delay of Game on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MISS +0.4 pts |
| Q3 13:52 | False Start on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MISS +1.2 pts |
| Q3 13:32 | Ineligible Downfield on South Carolina, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +1% MISS +1.4 pts |
| Q3 13:09 | Pass Interference on Ole Miss, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +7% SC +6.0 pts |
| Q4 11:48 | False Start on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MISS +1.2 pts |
| Q4 5:14 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Ole Miss, 15 yards | 0% SC +0.9 pts |
| Q4 5:14 | Holding on Ole Miss, 10 yards | 0% SC +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Ole Miss’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:56 | Ole Miss converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +6% MISS | MISS: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 12:06 | Ole Miss was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +4% SC | MISS: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q1 2:03 | South Carolina was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +8% MISS | SC: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 7:56 | Ole Miss converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +4% MISS | MISS: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 13:09 | Pass Interference on Ole Miss, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% SC | SC: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 9:10 | Ole Miss converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +4% MISS | MISS: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q3 3:48 | South Carolina fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% SC | SC: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 2:23 | Ole Miss was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +3% SC | MISS: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
South Carolina 0% · Ole Miss 100%
- Final margin
- Ole Miss by 16
- Luck in points
- 9.4 for South Carolina
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ole Miss by 25.4
- Replay with same day's form
- South Carolina 14% · Ole Miss 86% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 35 of the 44 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
South Carolina · 
Ole Miss
More from Week 10 2025
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Georgia vs Florida UGA 24–20 · replay 66% for the winner
- Kentucky at Auburn UK 10–3 · replay 71% for the winner
- Vanderbilt at Texas TEX 34–31 · replay 74% for the winner
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
- Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at NC State NCSU 48–36 · replay 35% for the winner
- Michigan State at Minnesota MINN 23–20 · replay 41% for the winner
- West Virginia at Houston WVU 45–35 · replay 42% for the winner