Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025
Georgia vs Florida, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
Georgia beat Florida 24–20, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff Georgia was a 68% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:37 left): Georgia converted 3rd & 8, worth 15 points of win probability to Georgia.
Final
 Georgia Bulldogs | 24 |
|---|---|
 Florida Gators | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +34 Georgia lucky · −34 Florida
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Georgia wins 7, Florida wins 3.
- 1 UGA 48 FLA 17
- 2 UGA 31 FLA 10
- 3 UGA 34 FLA 17
- 4 UGA 30 FLA 17
- 5 UGA 26 FLA 17
- 6 UGA 23 FLA 17
- 7 UGA 16 FLA 14
- 8 UGA 35 FLA 38
- 9 UGA 17 FLA 26
- 10 UGA 10 FLA 30
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Georgia wins 66% of them, Florida 34%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Georgia by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Georgia by 17+ | 25.7% |
| Georgia by 9–16 | 17.5% |
| Georgia by 1–8 | 21.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.7% |
| Florida by 1–8 | 14.8% |
| Florida by 9–16 | 11.5% |
| Florida by 17+ | 7.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Smack, 22 yds made · 98% expected
- P. Woodring, 39 yds made · 79% expected
- T. Smack, 54 yds made · 52% expected
Penalties: Georgia 7 for 65 yards, Florida 5 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:48 | Pass Interference on Florida, 15 yards | +3% UGA +2.0 pts |
| Q1 7:44 | False Start on Georgia, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FLA +0.8 pts |
| Q2 14:24 | Targeting on Georgia, 15 yards | +4% FLA +1.6 pts |
| Q2 7:43 | Holding on Georgia, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% FLA +2.1 pts |
| Q2 6:14 | False Start on Georgia, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FLA +0.4 pts |
| Q2 5:28 | False Start on Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UGA +0.5 pts |
| Q2 3:49 | Holding on Georgia, 10 yards | +2% FLA +0.6 pts |
| Q3 13:29 | Unnecessary Roughness on Florida, 15 yards | +5% UGA +1.6 pts |
| Q3 8:20 | Holding on Florida, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% UGA +2.1 pts |
| Q3 5:05 | Pass Interference on Georgia, 15 yards | +2% FLA +0.6 pts |
| Q3 3:43 | Pass Interference on Georgia, 5 yards | +8% FLA +2.5 pts |
| Q4 1:54 | Offside on Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UGA +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Florida’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 7:43 | Holding on Georgia, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% FLA | FLA: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 11:57 | Georgia converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +5% UGA | UGA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 3:43 | Pass Interference on Georgia, 5 yardsJudgment calls | +8% FLA | FLA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 14:57 | Florida was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +6% UGA | FLA: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 14:52 | T. Smack made a 54-yard field goalKicks · 52% expected for him, 14 of 20 from 45+ before | +9% FLA | FLA: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 7:54 | Florida was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +13% UGA | FLA: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 6:37 | Georgia converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +15% UGA | UGA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 3:13 | Florida was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +7% UGA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Georgia 11% · Florida 89%
- Final margin
- Georgia by 4
- Luck in points
- 10.7 for Georgia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Florida by 6.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Georgia 66% · Florida 34% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
Georgia · 
Florida
More from Week 10 2025
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Kentucky at Auburn UK 10–3 · replay 71% for the winner
- Vanderbilt at Texas TEX 34–31 · replay 74% for the winner
- South Carolina at Ole Miss MISS 30–14 · replay 86% for the winner
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
- Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at NC State NCSU 48–36 · replay 35% for the winner
- Michigan State at Minnesota MINN 23–20 · replay 41% for the winner
- West Virginia at Houston WVU 45–35 · replay 42% for the winner