Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 38 of the 55 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Sam Houston at Texas, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
Texas beat Sam Houston 55–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Texas was a 99% favorite.
Final
 Sam Houston Bearkats | 0 |
|---|---|
 Texas Longhorns | 55 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Texas about even · 0 Sam Houston
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sam Houston wins 0, Texas wins 10.
- 1 SHSU 0 TEX 28
- 2 SHSU 7 TEX 41
- 3 SHSU 0 TEX 38
- 4 SHSU 0 TEX 40
- 5 SHSU 0 TEX 42
- 6 SHSU 0 TEX 44
- 7 SHSU 3 TEX 49
- 8 SHSU 0 TEX 49
- 9 SHSU 0 TEX 52
- 10 SHSU 0 TEX 56
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Sam Houston wins 0% of them, Texas 100%. The line is what actually happened: Texas by 55.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sam Houston by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Sam Houston by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Sam Houston by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Texas by 1–8 | 0.7% |
| Texas by 9–16 | 2.7% |
| Texas by 17+ | 96.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
Penalties: Sam Houston 5 for 35 yards, Texas 9 for 70 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:25 | Delay of Game on Sam Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEX +1.2 pts |
| Q1 13:08 | False Start on Sam Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEX +0.8 pts |
| Q1 8:53 | Holding on Texas, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% SHSU +2.0 pts |
| Q1 8:18 | False Start on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SHSU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 14:15 | Illegal Motion on Sam Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEX +0.4 pts |
| Q2 12:50 | Illegal Formation on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SHSU +5.2 pts |
| Q2 11:21 | Delay of Game on Sam Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEX +0.8 pts |
| Q2 7:35 | Holding on Texas, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% SHSU +1.2 pts |
| Q3 14:31 | False Start on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SHSU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 12:26 | Face Mask on Texas, 15 yards | 0% SHSU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 6:05 | Personal Foul on Sam Houston, 15 yards | 0% TEX +0.9 pts |
| Q4 4:06 | Holding on Texas, 10 yards | 0% SHSU +0.4 pts |
| Q4 3:50 | False Start on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SHSU +0.4 pts |
| Q4 2:14 | Delay of Game on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SHSU +0.2 pts |
When it happened
Texas’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:25 | Delay of Game on Sam Houston, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% TEX | TEX: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 13:08 | False Start on Sam Houston, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% TEX | TEX: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 10:48 | Texas converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +0% TEX | TEX: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 8:53 | Holding on Texas, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% SHSU | SHSU: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 8:18 | False Start on Texas, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% SHSU | SHSU: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 7:33 | Texas converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +0% TEX | TEX: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q1 6:23 | Texas converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 82% expected | +0% TEX | TEX: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 6:05 | Sam Houston was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 13% expectedPersonal Foul on Sam Houston, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% TEX | SHSU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sam Houston 0% · Texas 100%
- Final margin
- Texas by 55
- Luck in points
- 1.8 for Sam Houston
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas by 56.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Sam Houston 0% · Texas 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 38 of the 55 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
Sam Houston · 
Texas
More from Week 4 2025
- Arkansas at Memphis MEM 32–31 · replay 30% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech LT 30–20 · replay 45% for the winner
- Marshall at Middle Tennessee MRSH 42–28 · replay 47% for the winner
- Auburn at Oklahoma OU 24–17 · replay 60% for the winner
- Nevada at Western Kentucky WKU 31–16 · replay 73% for the winner
- UL Monroe at UTEP ULM 31–25 · replay 84% for the winner
- Delaware at Florida International DEL 38–16 · replay 85% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Mississippi State MSST 38–10 · replay 88% for the winner
- Arkansas State at Kennesaw State KENN 28–21 · replay 88% for the winner
- South Carolina at Missouri MIZ 29–20 · replay 92% for the winner
- UT Martin at Missouri State MOST 42–10 · replay 92% for the winner
- James Madison at Liberty JMU 31–13 · replay 98% for the winner