Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 30 of the 44 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
James Madison at Liberty, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
James Madison beat Liberty 31–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, James Madison wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff James Madison was a 69% favorite.
Final
 James Madison Dukes | 31 |
|---|---|
 Liberty Flames | 13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 James Madison about even · −2 Liberty
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. James Madison wins 10, Liberty wins 0.
- 1 JMU 35 LIB 0
- 2 JMU 38 LIB 8
- 3 JMU 27 LIB 0
- 4 JMU 24 LIB 0
- 5 JMU 28 LIB 7
- 6 JMU 21 LIB 3
- 7 JMU 17 LIB 3
- 8 JMU 13 LIB 0
- 9 JMU 14 LIB 5
- 10 JMU 7 LIB 3
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
James Madison wins 98% of them, Liberty 2%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: James Madison by 18.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| James Madison by 17+ | 71.3% |
| James Madison by 9–16 | 17.6% |
| James Madison by 1–8 | 8.1% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| Liberty by 1–8 | 1.5% |
| Liberty by 9–16 | 0.2% |
| Liberty by 17+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Suarez, 39 yds made · 74% expected
- J. Billingsley, 47 yds made · 58% expected
- J. Billingsley, 35 yds made · 79% expected
Penalties: James Madison 4 for 42 yards, Liberty 5 for 39 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2:54 | Pass Interference on Liberty, 4 yards | +3% JMU +1.5 pts |
| Q1 2:46 | Unnecessary Roughness on James Madison, 15 yards | +4% LIB +2.3 pts |
| Q1 1:10 | Pass Interference on Liberty, 15 yards | +3% JMU +1.8 pts |
| Q3 11:26 | False Start on Liberty, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% JMU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 10:11 | Roughing the Passer on James Madison, 12 yards | +5% LIB +1.5 pts |
| Q3 9:52 | Holding on Liberty, 10 yards | +2% JMU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 0:52 | Offside on Liberty, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JMU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | False Start on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LIB +0.6 pts |
| Q4 12:11 | Holding on James Madison, 10 yards | +1% LIB +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Liberty’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 52%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:01 | James Madison converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +4% JMU | JMU: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 2:46 | Unnecessary Roughness on James Madison, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% LIB | LIB: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 1:10 | Pass Interference on Liberty, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% JMU | JMU: Turnover |
| 4 | Q2 12:24 | Liberty was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +3% JMU | LIB: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 13:38 | Liberty converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +6% LIB | LIB: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 10:11 | Roughing the Passer on James Madison, 12 yardsJudgment calls | +5% LIB | LIB: Field goal |
| 7 | Q3 5:01 | James Madison converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +3% JMU | JMU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 2:08 | Liberty was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +5% JMU | LIB: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
James Madison 99% · Liberty 1%
- Final margin
- James Madison by 18
- Luck in points
- 6.1 for James Madison
- Luck-adjusted margin
- James Madison by 11.9
- Replay with same day's form
- James Madison 98% · Liberty 2% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 30 of the 44 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
James Madison · 
Liberty
More from Week 4 2025
- Troy at Buffalo TROY 21–17 · replay 30% for the winner
- Louisiana at Eastern Michigan EMU 34–31 · replay 42% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech LT 30–20 · replay 45% for the winner
- Marshall at Middle Tennessee MRSH 42–28 · replay 47% for the winner
- Nevada at Western Kentucky WKU 31–16 · replay 73% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at South Alabama CCU 38–20 · replay 74% for the winner
- UL Monroe at UTEP ULM 31–25 · replay 84% for the winner
- Delaware at Florida International DEL 38–16 · replay 85% for the winner
- Arkansas State at Kennesaw State KENN 28–21 · replay 88% for the winner
- UT Martin at Missouri State MOST 42–10 · replay 92% for the winner
- Nicholls at Texas State TXST 35–3 · replay 96% for the winner
- Maine at Georgia Southern GASO 45–17 · replay 98% for the winner