Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025
Nicholls at Texas State, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
Texas State beat Nicholls 35–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Texas State was a 98% favorite.
Final
 Nicholls Colonels | 3 |
|---|---|
 Texas State Bobcats | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Texas State about even · −4 Nicholls
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Nicholls wins 0, Texas State wins 10.
- 1 NICH 31 TXST 35
- 2 NICH 14 TXST 23
- 3 NICH 10 TXST 24
- 4 NICH 14 TXST 31
- 5 NICH 7 TXST 28
- 6 NICH 14 TXST 38
- 7 NICH 17 TXST 45
- 8 NICH 7 TXST 38
- 9 NICH 7 TXST 42
- 10 NICH 0 TXST 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Nicholls wins 4% of them, Texas State 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texas State by 32.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Nicholls by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Nicholls by 9–16 | 0.4% |
| Nicholls by 1–8 | 2.8% |
| Level after regulation | 0.6% |
| Texas State by 1–8 | 8.6% |
| Texas State by 9–16 | 15.2% |
| Texas State by 17+ | 72.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
Penalties: Nicholls 3 for 21 yards, Texas State 5 for 52 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:09 | Personal Foul on Nicholls, 15 yards | 0% TXST +2.5 pts |
| Q1 12:26 | False Start on Texas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NICH +0.7 pts |
| Q2 9:33 | Encroachment on Nicholls, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TXST +2.5 pts |
| Q2 0:46 | Personal Foul on Texas State, 15 yards | 0% NICH +0.5 pts |
| Q2 0:29 | Penalty on Texas State, 12 yards | 0% NICH +1.5 pts |
| Q2 0:23 | Pass Interference on Texas State, 15 yards | 0% NICH +2.4 pts |
| Q3 9:08 | False Start on Nicholls, 1 yard · pre-snap | 0% TXST +0.1 pts |
| Q4 3:00 | Offside on Texas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NICH +1.1 pts |
When it happened
Texas State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:09 | Personal Foul on Nicholls, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% TXST | TXST: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 12:54 | Texas State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expected | +0% TXST | TXST: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 7:27 | Nicholls converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +0% NICH | NICH: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 4:18 | Nicholls converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +0% NICH | NICH: Field goal |
| 5 | Q1 2:54 | Nicholls fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% NICH | NICH: Field goal |
| 6 | Q1 0:00 | Texas State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +0% TXST | TXST: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 12:01 | Texas State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expected | +0% NICH | TXST: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 9:33 | Encroachment on Nicholls, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% TXST | TXST: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Nicholls 0% · Texas State 100%
- Final margin
- Texas State by 32
- Luck in points
- 2.6 for Texas State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas State by 29.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Nicholls 4% · Texas State 96% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
Nicholls · 
Texas State
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