luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026

Nevada at Middle Tennessee, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

Middle Tennessee beat Nevada 27–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Middle Tennessee wins 8 of 10. Nevada had the bounces: pre-snap flags alone were worth 18 points of win probability to Nevada.

An off day for Nevada: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Middle Tennessee it would win 52% of the time; with this day’s form, 16%. The numbers

Before kickoff Nevada was a 59% favorite.

Final

Nevada Wolf Pack 20
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 27

September 19, 2026 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · Closing line: Nevada −3.5

Luck index +16 Middle Tennessee about even · −16 Nevada

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Nevada wins 2, Middle Tennessee wins 8.

  1. 1 NEV 27 MTSU 13
  2. 2 NEV 7 MTSU 3
  3. 3 NEV 14 MTSU 17
  4. 4 NEV 17 MTSU 24
  5. 5 NEV 10 MTSU 20
  6. 6 NEV 14 MTSU 26
  7. 7 NEV 10 MTSU 26
  8. 8 NEV 3 MTSU 23
  9. 9 NEV 3 MTSU 27
  10. 10 NEV 3 MTSU 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for Nevada

It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Middle Tennessee it would win 52% of the time; with this day’s form, 16%.

36 points apart for Nevada: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Nevada offenseEPA per play gained +0.11 +0.03 better by 0.08
Nevada defenseEPA per play allowed +0.10 +0.05 worse by 0.05
Middle Tennessee offenseEPA per play gained +0.10 +0.03 better by 0.07
Middle Tennessee defenseEPA per play allowed +0.11 +0.10 worse by 0.01

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Nevada wins 16% of them, Middle Tennessee 84%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Middle Tennessee by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Nevada by 17+1.3%
Nevada by 9–164.4%
Nevada by 1–88.2%
Level after regulation2.4%
Middle Tennessee by 1–822.8%
Middle Tennessee by 9–1621.7%
Middle Tennessee by 17+39.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.6 points to Nevada: the final margin was Middle Tennessee by 7, without the luck Middle Tennessee by 11.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. McFadden, 39 yds made · 75% expected
  • D. Bourgeois, 47 yds made · 60% expected
  • J. McFadden, 20 yds made · 95% expected
  • D. Bourgeois, 23 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Nevada 5 for 54 yards, Middle Tennessee 10 for 84 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:28 Pass Interference on Nevada, 5 yards +4% MTSU +2.2 pts
Q1 1:34 Illegal Snap on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NEV +0.7 pts
Q2 5:37 Delay of Game on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NEV +0.3 pts
Q2 1:10 Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards +4% NEV +1.4 pts
Q3 12:50 Holding on Nevada, 10 yards +2% MTSU +0.6 pts
Q3 12:44 Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards +3% NEV +1.3 pts
Q3 11:46 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Middle Tennessee, 15 yards +4% NEV +1.6 pts
Q3 11:24 Pass Interference on Middle Tennessee, 15 yards +3% NEV +1.2 pts
Q3 9:31 False Start on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% NEV +1.7 pts
Q3 9:24 Holding on Nevada, 10 yards +2% MTSU +0.6 pts
Q3 4:50 Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards +8% NEV +2.3 pts
Q4 12:25 False Start on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NEV +0.7 pts
Q4 11:19 Pass Interference on Nevada, 12 yards +6% MTSU +1.4 pts
Q4 10:21 False Start on Middle Tennessee, 4 yards · pre-snap +7% NEV +1.6 pts
Q4 9:48 Holding on Nevada, 17 yards +8% MTSU +1.6 pts

When it happened

Middle Tennessee’s chance of winning

As low as 26% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Middle Tennessee was ahead in it, below while Nevada was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 14:46 Nevada fumbled and Middle Tennessee recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% MTSU NEV: Touchdown
2 Q3 6:04 Middle Tennessee converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +8% MTSU MTSU: Punt
3 Q3 4:50 Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yardsJudgment calls +8% NEV NEV: Field goal
4 Q4 11:19 Pass Interference on Nevada, 12 yardsJudgment calls +6% MTSU MTSU: Field goal
5 Q4 10:21 False Start on Middle Tennessee, 4 yardsPre-snap flags +7% NEV NEV: Turnover
6 Q4 9:54 Middle Tennessee was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +6% NEV MTSU: Field goal
7 Q4 9:48 Holding on Nevada, 17 yardsJudgment calls +8% MTSU MTSU: Touchdown
8 Q4 6:33 Middle Tennessee converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +7% MTSU MTSU: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Nevada 5% · Middle Tennessee 95%

Final margin
Middle Tennessee by 7
Luck in points
4.6 for Nevada
Luck-adjusted margin
Middle Tennessee by 11.6
Replay with same day's form
Nevada 16% · Middle Tennessee 84% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · Nevada · Middle Tennessee

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