Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
Ball State at Liberty, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
Liberty beat Ball State 51–15, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Liberty wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Liberty was an 83% favorite.
Final
 Ball State Cardinals | 15 |
|---|---|
 Liberty Flames | 51 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Liberty about even · 0 Ball State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ball State wins 0, Liberty wins 10.
- 1 BALL 21 LIB 31
- 2 BALL 21 LIB 38
- 3 BALL 10 LIB 31
- 4 BALL 20 LIB 45
- 5 BALL 13 LIB 42
- 6 BALL 3 LIB 35
- 7 BALL 14 LIB 49
- 8 BALL 3 LIB 42
- 9 BALL 7 LIB 49
- 10 BALL 7 LIB 56
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ball State wins 0% of them, Liberty 100%. The line is what actually happened: Liberty by 36.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ball State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Ball State by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Ball State by 1–8 | 0.4% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Liberty by 1–8 | 1.8% |
| Liberty by 9–16 | 5.0% |
| Liberty by 17+ | 92.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Reeves, 46 yds made · 62% expected
- B. Boehm, 34 yds missed · 83% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Ball State 9 for 83 yards, Liberty 3 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 1:45 | Delay of Game on Ball State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LIB +0.6 pts |
| Q2 6:30 | Offside on Liberty, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BALL +0.4 pts |
| Q2 3:13 | False Start on Liberty, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BALL +0.2 pts |
| Q2 3:04 | Illegal Formation on Ball State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +1% LIB +1.1 pts |
| Q2 2:44 | Personal Foul on Ball State, 12 yards, wiping out the play | +3% LIB +2.3 pts |
| Q2 0:17 | Personal Foul on Ball State, 8 yards | 0% LIB +1.2 pts |
| Q3 9:52 | Holding on Ball State, 10 yards | 0% LIB +1.6 pts |
| Q3 6:13 | Personal Foul on Liberty, 15 yards | 0% BALL +1.6 pts |
| Q4 14:54 | Holding on Ball State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% LIB +2.1 pts |
| Q4 12:47 | Personal Foul on Ball State, 15 yards | 0% LIB +1.6 pts |
| Q4 4:55 | Holding on Ball State, 8 yards | 0% LIB +0.5 pts |
| Q4 2:12 | Holding on Ball State, 10 yards | 0% LIB +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Liberty’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:13 | Ball State was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +2% LIB | BALL: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 12:51 | Liberty converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +2% LIB | LIB: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 10:48 | Liberty converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +2% LIB | LIB: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 12:15 | Liberty converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +2% LIB | LIB: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 4:04 | Ball State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +1% LIB | BALL: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q2 3:13 | Liberty was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expectedFalse Start on Liberty, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +2% BALL | LIB: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 2:44 | Personal Foul on Ball State, 12 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +3% LIB | LIB: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 0:42 | Liberty converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +1% LIB | LIB: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ball State 0% · Liberty 100%
- Final margin
- Liberty by 36
- Luck in points
- 11.6 for Liberty
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Liberty by 24.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Ball State 0% · Liberty 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
Ball State · 
Liberty
More from Week 3 2026
- Marshall at Missouri State MRSH 30–24 · replay 22% for the winner
- Florida International at Florida Atlantic FAU 16–10 · replay 31% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Rice WMU 28–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Cincinnati CIN 35–31 · replay 48% for the winner
- Ohio at South Alabama USA 41–36 · replay 62% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Jacksonville State JXST 31–27 · replay 67% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at Delaware DEL 22–14 · replay 72% for the winner
- North Dakota State at Sacramento State NDSU 31–10 · replay 80% for the winner
- Nevada at Middle Tennessee MTSU 27–20 · replay 84% for the winner
- Temple at Toledo TOL 49–48 · replay 86% for the winner
- Wyoming at Central Michigan CMU 24–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Stonehill at Massachusetts MASS 36–14 · replay 97% for the winner