Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
Akron at Minnesota, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
Minnesota beat Akron 41–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Minnesota wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Minnesota was a 93% favorite.
Final
 Akron Zips | 7 |
|---|---|
 Minnesota Golden Gophers | 41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Minnesota about even · 0 Akron
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Akron wins 0, Minnesota wins 10.
- 1 AKR 7 MINN 14
- 2 AKR 10 MINN 26
- 3 AKR 7 MINN 27
- 4 AKR 7 MINN 31
- 5 AKR 0 MINN 26
- 6 AKR 3 MINN 32
- 7 AKR 7 MINN 40
- 8 AKR 0 MINN 37
- 9 AKR 0 MINN 43
- 10 AKR 10 MINN 59
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Akron wins 0% of them, Minnesota 100%. The line is what actually happened: Minnesota by 34.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Akron by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Akron by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Akron by 1–8 | 0.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Minnesota by 1–8 | 1.8% |
| Minnesota by 9–16 | 5.6% |
| Minnesota by 17+ | 92.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Drzewiecki, 24 yds made · 92% expected
- L. Drzewiecki, 43 yds made · 68% expected
Penalties: Akron 7 for 74 yards, Minnesota 3 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:51 | False Start on Akron, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% AKR +0.2 pts |
| Q2 9:32 | Roughing the Passer on Minnesota, 15 yards | 0% AKR +1.9 pts |
| Q2 6:19 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Akron, 15 yards | 0% MINN +0.9 pts |
| Q2 6:04 | Chop Block on Akron, 15 yards | 0% MINN +1.4 pts |
| Q3 12:47 | Unnecessary Roughness on Akron, 14 yards | 0% MINN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 5:53 | Pass Interference on Minnesota, 15 yards | 0% AKR +3.3 pts |
| Q4 13:20 | Unnecessary Roughness on Akron, 15 yards | 0% MINN +1.6 pts |
| Q4 12:04 | Offside on Akron, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MINN +0.3 pts |
| Q4 10:11 | False Start on Akron, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MINN +0.6 pts |
| Q4 8:52 | Face Mask on Minnesota, 15 yards | 0% AKR +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Minnesota’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:50 | Minnesota converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +0% MINN | MINN: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 10:36 | Akron fumbled and Minnesota recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% MINN | AKR: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 9:36 | Minnesota was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +0% AKR | MINN: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 4:48 | Akron was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +0% MINN | AKR: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 1:38 | Minnesota was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +0% AKR | MINN: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 14:01 | Minnesota was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +0% AKR | MINN: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 10:50 | Minnesota converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +1% MINN | MINN: Field goal |
| 8 | Q2 9:32 | Roughing the Passer on Minnesota, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% AKR | AKR: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Akron 0% · Minnesota 100%
- Final margin
- Minnesota by 34
- Luck in points
- 7.6 for Minnesota
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Minnesota by 26.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Akron 0% · Minnesota 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
Akron · 
Minnesota
More from Week 3 2026
- USC at Rutgers USC 42–35 · replay 25% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Rice WMU 28–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- Virginia Tech at Maryland VT 35–26 · replay 47% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Cincinnati CIN 35–31 · replay 48% for the winner
- Ohio at South Alabama USA 41–36 · replay 62% for the winner
- Colorado at Northwestern NU 41–7 · replay 65% for the winner
- Purdue at UCLA UCLA 52–38 · replay 79% for the winner
- North Dakota State at Sacramento State NDSU 31–10 · replay 80% for the winner
- Temple at Toledo TOL 49–48 · replay 86% for the winner
- Wyoming at Central Michigan CMU 24–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Michigan State at Notre Dame ND 27–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Stonehill at Massachusetts MASS 36–14 · replay 97% for the winner