luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026

Duquesne at Washington State, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

Washington State beat Duquesne 48–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Washington State wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Washington State was a 99% favorite.

Final

Duquesne Dukes 7
Washington State Cougars 48

September 19, 2026 · Gesa Field · Closing line: Washington State −38.5

Luck index 0 Washington State about even · 0 Duquesne

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Duquesne wins 0, Washington State wins 10.

  1. 1 DUQ 16 WSU 30
  2. 2 DUQ 16 WSU 37
  3. 3 DUQ 7 WSU 33
  4. 4 DUQ 6 WSU 35
  5. 5 DUQ 3 WSU 36
  6. 6 DUQ 14 WSU 49
  7. 7 DUQ 13 WSU 52
  8. 8 DUQ 10 WSU 52
  9. 9 DUQ 0 WSU 48
  10. 10 DUQ 10 WSU 66

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Duquesne wins 0% of them, Washington State 100%. The line is what actually happened: Washington State by 41.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Duquesne by 17+0.0%
Duquesne by 9–160.0%
Duquesne by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Washington State by 1–81.1%
Washington State by 9–162.7%
Washington State by 17+96.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.8 points to Washington State: the final margin was Washington State by 41, without the luck Washington State by 37.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Stevens, 30 yds missed · 86% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Duquesne 9 for 58 yards, Washington State 11 for 91 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:58 Holding on Duquesne, 10 yards 0% WSU +0.2 pts
Q1 11:59 False Start on Duquesne, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WSU +0.8 pts
Q1 11:19 False Start on Duquesne, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WSU +1.2 pts
Q1 8:28 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Duquesne, 8 yards 0% WSU +1.2 pts
Q1 4:25 Roughing the Passer on Washington State, 0 yards 0% DUQ +0.2 pts
Q1 0:22 Illegal Formation on Washington State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% DUQ +2.1 pts
Q1 0:12 Holding on Washington State, 10 yards 0% DUQ +0.6 pts
Q2 12:11 Holding on Duquesne, 10 yards 0% WSU +1.7 pts
Q2 4:52 Holding on Washington State, 10 yards 0% DUQ +1.2 pts
Q2 3:37 Holding on Washington State, 10 yards 0% DUQ +1.6 pts
Q2 1:37 False Start on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DUQ +0.4 pts
Q2 0:18 Offside on Duquesne, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WSU 0.0 pts
Q3 13:59 Illegal Substitution on Duquesne, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DUQ 0.0 pts
Q3 8:11 Holding on Washington State, 6 yards 0% DUQ +2.3 pts
Q3 0:07 Offside on Duquesne, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WSU +0.8 pts
Q4 14:19 Holding on Washington State, 10 yards 0% DUQ +0.8 pts
Q4 13:27 Pass Interference on Washington State, 15 yards 0% DUQ +1.8 pts
Q4 11:18 Holding on Washington State, 10 yards 0% DUQ +0.6 pts
Q4 7:36 Holding on Washington State, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% DUQ +2.1 pts
Q4 4:46 False Start on Duquesne, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WSU +0.4 pts

When it happened

Washington State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Washington State was ahead in it, below while Duquesne was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:38 Washington State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +0% WSU WSU: Touchdown
2 Q1 0:22 Illegal Formation on Washington State, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +0% DUQ DUQ: Punt
3 Q2 14:57 J. Stevens missed a 30-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him +1% DUQ WSU: Punt
4 Q2 12:11 Holding on Duquesne, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% WSU WSU: Punt
5 Q2 11:27 Duquesne was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +0% WSU DUQ: Punt
6 Q2 5:12 Washington State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +0% WSU WSU: Touchdown
7 Q2 4:52 Holding on Washington State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% DUQ DUQ: Punt
8 Q2 3:37 Holding on Washington State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% DUQ DUQ: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Duquesne 0% · Washington State 100%

Final margin
Washington State by 41
Luck in points
3.8 for Washington State
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington State by 37.2
Replay with same day's form
Duquesne 0% · Washington State 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · Duquesne · Washington State

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