luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026

Utah State at Utah, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

Utah beat Utah State 33–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Utah wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Utah was a 96% favorite.

Final

Utah State Aggies 0
Utah Utes 33

September 19, 2026 · Rice-Eccles Stadium · Closing line: Utah −26.5

Luck index 0 Utah about even · 0 Utah State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Utah State wins 0, Utah wins 10.

  1. 1 USU 13 UTAH 21
  2. 2 USU 10 UTAH 26
  3. 3 USU 6 UTAH 26
  4. 4 USU 0 UTAH 24
  5. 5 USU 14 UTAH 42
  6. 6 USU 7 UTAH 37
  7. 7 USU 14 UTAH 48
  8. 8 USU 3 UTAH 41
  9. 9 USU 3 UTAH 45
  10. 10 USU 3 UTAH 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Utah State wins 0% of them, Utah 100%. The line is what actually happened: Utah by 33.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Utah State by 17+0.0%
Utah State by 9–160.0%
Utah State by 1–80.4%
Level after regulation0.0%
Utah by 1–82.2%
Utah by 9–166.8%
Utah by 17+90.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.6 points to Utah: the final margin was Utah by 33, without the luck Utah by 26.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • D. Curtis, 36 yds made · 79% expected
  • D. Curtis, 54 yds made · 47% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Utah State 8 for 68 yards, Utah 5 for 43 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:08 Pass Interference on Utah State, 13 yards +1% UTAH +2.1 pts
Q1 11:29 Ineligible Downfield on Utah, 5 yards 0% USU +1.1 pts
Q1 5:38 Illegal Snap on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USU +0.8 pts
Q2 10:32 Delay of Game on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UTAH +0.9 pts
Q2 10:23 Offside on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UTAH +0.9 pts
Q2 10:16 Holding on Utah, 3 yards, wiping out the play +1% USU +7.4 pts
Q2 2:31 Pass Interference on Utah, 15 yards, wiping out the play +1% USU +3.7 pts
Q2 0:10 False Start on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UTAH +0.1 pts
Q3 14:07 Delay of Game on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UTAH +0.3 pts
Q3 2:04 Personal Foul on Utah, 15 yards 0% USU +1.6 pts
Q4 12:08 Personal Foul on Utah State, 15 yards 0% UTAH +0.9 pts
Q4 7:54 Kick Catch Interference on Utah State, 15 yards 0% UTAH +0.9 pts
Q4 6:57 Delay of Game on Utah, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USU +0.2 pts

When it happened

Utah’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Utah was ahead in it, below while Utah State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:08 Pass Interference on Utah State, 13 yardsJudgment calls +1% UTAH UTAH: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:29 Ineligible Downfield on Utah, 5 yardsJudgment calls +0% USU USU: Punt
3 Q1 10:37 Utah converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +1% UTAH UTAH: Touchdown
4 Q1 6:40 Utah converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +0% UTAH UTAH: Touchdown
5 Q1 5:38 Utah’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedIllegal Snap on Utah State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% USU UTAH: Field goal
6 Q2 10:16 Holding on Utah, 3 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +1% USU USU: Punt
7 Q2 2:31 Pass Interference on Utah, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +1% USU USU: Punt
8 Q4 7:54 Kick Catch Interference on Utah State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% UTAH UTAH: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Utah State 0% · Utah 100%

Final margin
Utah by 33
Luck in points
6.6 for Utah
Luck-adjusted margin
Utah by 26.4
Replay with same day's form
Utah State 0% · Utah 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · Utah State · Utah

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