luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026

Murray State at Oklahoma State, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

Oklahoma State beat Murray State 59–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Oklahoma State wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Oklahoma State was a 100% favorite.

Final

Murray State Racers 0
Oklahoma State Cowboys 59

September 19, 2026 · Boone Pickens Stadium · Closing line: Oklahoma State −56.5

Luck index 0 Oklahoma State about even · 0 Murray State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Murray State wins 0, Oklahoma State wins 10.

  1. 1 MUR 14 OKST 48
  2. 2 MUR 0 OKST 42
  3. 3 MUR 3 OKST 48
  4. 4 MUR 6 OKST 55
  5. 5 MUR 0 OKST 52
  6. 6 MUR 10 OKST 66
  7. 7 MUR 10 OKST 70
  8. 8 MUR 0 OKST 63
  9. 9 MUR 3 OKST 70
  10. 10 MUR 7 OKST 80

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Murray State wins 0% of them, Oklahoma State 100%. The line is what actually happened: Oklahoma State by 59.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Murray State by 17+0.0%
Murray State by 9–160.0%
Murray State by 1–80.0%
Level after regulation0.1%
Oklahoma State by 1–80.2%
Oklahoma State by 9–161.3%
Oklahoma State by 17+98.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.4 points to Oklahoma State: the final margin was Oklahoma State by 59, without the luck Oklahoma State by 47.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • T. Dorn, 37 yds blocked · 77% expected
  • S. Keltner, 23 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Murray State 4 for 20 yards, Oklahoma State 3 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:53 Delay of Game on Murray State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% OKST +0.6 pts
Q2 11:52 False Start on Murray State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% OKST +0.5 pts
Q2 11:40 Illegal Motion on Murray State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% OKST +0.1 pts
Q2 11:13 Holding on Oklahoma State, 10 yards 0% MUR +0.6 pts
Q2 0:52 Illegal Motion on Oklahoma State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% MUR +1.8 pts
Q3 2:29 Targeting on Murray State, 5 yards 0% OKST +1.0 pts
Q3 0:33 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Oklahoma State, 15 yards 0% MUR +0.9 pts

When it happened

Oklahoma State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Oklahoma State was ahead in it, below while Murray State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:51 Murray State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +0% OKST MUR: Punt
2 Q1 5:53 Murray State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedDelay of Game on Murray State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% OKST MUR: Missed field goal
3 Q1 3:57 Oklahoma State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +0% OKST OKST: Touchdown
4 Q1 1:45 Murray State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +0% OKST MUR: Punt
5 Q2 13:05 Oklahoma State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +0% OKST OKST: Field goal
6 Q2 11:43 Murray State was stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +0% OKST MUR: Punt
7 Q2 8:15 Oklahoma State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +0% OKST OKST: Field goal
8 Q2 6:22 Murray State was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +0% OKST MUR: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Murray State 0% · Oklahoma State 100%

Final margin
Oklahoma State by 59
Luck in points
11.4 for Oklahoma State
Luck-adjusted margin
Oklahoma State by 47.6
Replay with same day's form
Murray State 0% · Oklahoma State 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · Murray State · Oklahoma State

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