luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 11 2025 · November 6, 2025

UTSA at South Florida, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

South Florida beat UTSA 55–23, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, South Florida wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff South Florida was an 82% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 7:06 left): Return touchdown by South Florida, worth 17 points of win probability to South Florida.

Final

UTSA Roadrunners 23
South Florida Bulls 55

November 6, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: South Florida −14

Luck index +3 South Florida about even · −3 UTSA

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. UTSA wins 0, South Florida wins 10.

  1. 1 UTSA 21 USF 27
  2. 2 UTSA 12 USF 24
  3. 3 UTSA 7 USF 23
  4. 4 UTSA 10 USF 30
  5. 5 UTSA 9 USF 31
  6. 6 UTSA 10 USF 37
  7. 7 UTSA 7 USF 38
  8. 8 UTSA 14 USF 48
  9. 9 UTSA 14 USF 53
  10. 10 UTSA 10 USF 56

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

UTSA wins 3% of them, South Florida 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: South Florida by 32.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
UTSA by 17+0.1%
UTSA by 9–160.4%
UTSA by 1–81.8%
Level after regulation0.7%
South Florida by 1–86.2%
South Florida by 9–1610.2%
South Florida by 17+80.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.8 points to South Florida: the final margin was South Florida by 32, without the luck South Florida by 24.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • M. Petro, 33 yds made · 84% expected
  • N. Gramatica, 40 yds made · 74% expected
  • M. Petro, 39 yds made · 76% expected
  • N. Gramatica, 51 yds made · 54% expected
  • M. Petro, 27 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: UTSA 11 for 85 yards, South Florida 5 for 56 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:23 Pass Interference on South Florida, 11 yards +1% UTSA +1.3 pts
Q1 10:13 False Start on UTSA, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% USF +0.6 pts
Q1 7:22 Pass Interference on South Florida, 15 yards +4% UTSA +3.4 pts
Q1 6:15 Pass Interference on UTSA, 15 yards, wiping out the play +3% USF +4.2 pts
Q2 13:28 Holding on South Florida, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% UTSA +0.7 pts
Q2 12:19 Illegal Shift on UTSA, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% USF +1.4 pts
Q2 11:24 False Start on UTSA, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USF +0.5 pts
Q2 7:24 Delay of Game on UTSA, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USF +0.2 pts
Q2 5:06 False Start on UTSA, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USF +0.5 pts
Q2 3:23 Illegal Substitution on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USF +0.1 pts
Q3 9:25 False Start on UTSA, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USF +3.8 pts
Q3 7:24 Personal Foul on South Florida, 15 yards 0% UTSA +1.6 pts
Q4 14:29 False Start on UTSA, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USF +0.9 pts
Q4 11:26 Unnecessary Roughness on UTSA, 15 yards 0% USF +1.6 pts
Q4 11:21 Unnecessary Roughness on UTSA, 15 yards 0% USF +1.1 pts
Q4 9:58 Illegal Snap on UTSA, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USF +0.7 pts

When it happened

South Florida’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while South Florida was ahead in it, below while UTSA was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:23 Pass Interference on South Florida, 11 yardsJudgment calls +1% UTSA UTSA: Field goal
2 Q1 11:48 UTSA converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +2% UTSA UTSA: Field goal
3 Q1 10:39 UTSA converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +2% UTSA UTSA: Field goal
4 Q1 8:34 UTSA converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +1% UTSA UTSA: Field goal
5 Q1 7:22 Pass Interference on South Florida, 15 yardsJudgment calls +4% UTSA UTSA: Field goal
6 Q1 7:06 UTSA fumbled and South Florida recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by South FloridaSpecial teams +17% USF UTSA: Field goal
7 Q1 6:15 Pass Interference on UTSA, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +3% USF USF: Touchdown
8 Q1 3:01 UTSA converted 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +3% UTSA UTSA: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

UTSA 0% · South Florida 100%

Final margin
South Florida by 32
Luck in points
7.9 for South Florida
Luck-adjusted margin
South Florida by 24.1
Replay with same day's form
UTSA 3% · South Florida 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · UTSA · South Florida

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