Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025
Tulsa at Florida Atlantic, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
Florida Atlantic beat Tulsa 40–21, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Florida Atlantic was a 61% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:58 left): Return touchdown by Florida Atlantic, worth 26 points of win probability to Florida Atlantic.
Final
 Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 21 |
|---|---|
 Florida Atlantic Owls | 40 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Florida Atlantic about even · −20 Tulsa
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Tulsa wins 2, Florida Atlantic wins 8.
- 1 TLSA 34 FAU 21
- 2 TLSA 13 FAU 10
- 3 TLSA 31 FAU 33
- 4 TLSA 19 FAU 23
- 5 TLSA 24 FAU 33
- 6 TLSA 14 FAU 26
- 7 TLSA 3 FAU 17
- 8 TLSA 7 FAU 26
- 9 TLSA 14 FAU 38
- 10 TLSA 7 FAU 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Tulsa wins 20% of them, Florida Atlantic 80%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Florida Atlantic by 19.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Tulsa by 17+ | 2.7% |
| Tulsa by 9–16 | 6.3% |
| Tulsa by 1–8 | 10.0% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| Florida Atlantic by 1–8 | 23.0% |
| Florida Atlantic by 9–16 | 19.1% |
| Florida Atlantic by 17+ | 37.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- G. Smith, 35 yds made · 81% expected
- S. Morgan, 35 yds made · 80% expected
- S. Morgan, 49 yds made · 56% expected
- G. Smith, 20 yds made · 95% expected
- S. Morgan, 22 yds made · 93% expected
Penalties: Tulsa 3 for 15 yards, Florida Atlantic 6 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:06 | Intentional Grounding on Tulsa, 5 yards | +1% FAU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 10:00 | Delay of Game on Tulsa, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FAU 0.0 pts |
| Q2 7:58 | False Start on Tulsa, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% FAU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 1:15 | Offside on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% TLSA +1.7 pts |
| Q2 0:43 | Personal Foul on Florida Atlantic, 15 yards | +1% TLSA +0.9 pts |
| Q3 0:35 | Pass Interference on Florida Atlantic, 10 yards | +1% TLSA +0.9 pts |
| Q4 7:58 | Holding on Florida Atlantic, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% TLSA +1.8 pts |
| Q4 5:56 | Delay of Game on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TLSA +0.3 pts |
| Q4 4:58 | Pass Interference on Florida Atlantic, 15 yards | 0% TLSA +2.7 pts |
When it happened
Florida Atlantic’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:52 | Tulsa converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +5% TLSA | TLSA: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 10:46 | Tulsa converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +5% TLSA | TLSA: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 9:31 | Tulsa converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +6% TLSA | TLSA: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q1 8:06 | Tulsa was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +5% FAU | TLSA: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q1 6:00 | Florida Atlantic converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +4% FAU | FAU: Turnover |
| 6 | Q1 2:09 | Tulsa converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +5% TLSA | TLSA: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q2 8:54 | Florida Atlantic was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +7% TLSA | FAU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 0:58 | Tulsa fumbled and Florida Atlantic recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by Florida AtlanticSpecial teams | +26% FAU | TLSA: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Tulsa 0% · Florida Atlantic 100%
- Final margin
- Florida Atlantic by 19
- Luck in points
- 8.4 for Tulsa
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Florida Atlantic by 27.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Tulsa 20% · Florida Atlantic 80% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
Tulsa · 
Florida Atlantic
More from Week 11 2025
- UAB at Rice RICE 24–17 · replay 35% for the winner
- Temple at Army ARMY 14–13 · replay 48% for the winner
- Tulane at Memphis TULN 38–32 · replay 74% for the winner
- Charlotte at East Carolina ECU 48–22 · replay 91% for the winner
- UTSA at South Florida USF 55–23 · replay 97% for the winner
- Navy at Notre Dame ND 49–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Oregon State SHSU 21–17 · replay 2% for the winner
- Air Force at San José State AF 26–16 · replay 5% for the winner
- Texas State at Louisiana UL 42–39 · replay 14% for the winner
- Iowa State at TCU ISU 20–17 · replay 22% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia WAKE 16–9 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington at Wisconsin WIS 13–10 · replay 23% for the winner