College football · Week 10 2026 · Friday, November 6
South Florida vs East Carolina prediction and pick
Our South Florida Bulls at East Carolina Pirates pick: South Florida by 4.3, 60% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 6 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±16.9, so about 51% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ours: South Florida by 4.3South Florida win 60%East Carolina win 40%5649423528211470714212835424956← South Florida win byEast Carolina win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
South Florida win
60.1%
East Carolina win
39.9%
Middle 50%: South Florida by 16 to East Carolina by 7
50%
Middle 90%: South Florida by 32 to East Carolina by 24
90%
Middle 95%: South Florida by 38 to East Carolina by 28
95%
Exactly South Florida by 3
6.6%
Exactly East Carolina by 3
6.0%
Exactly South Florida by 7
5.3%
Exactly East Carolina by 7
4.3%
Exactly South Florida by 14
3.6%
P50
Half of games like this end between South Florida by 16 and East Carolina by 7.
P90
9 in 10 between South Florida by 32 and East Carolina by 24.
P95
19 in 20 between South Florida by 38 and East Carolina by 28.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
South Florida vs East Carolina: questions and answers
Who will win South Florida vs East Carolina?
Our forecast picks South Florida, with 60% to win; East Carolina win 40% of the time.
What’s the spread for South Florida vs East Carolina?
Our spread: South Florida −4.3. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is South Florida vs East Carolina?
Friday, November 6, 2026, at 7:30 pm ET, at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium.
South Florida at 
East Carolina
