College football · Week 10 2026 · Saturday, November 7
Northern Illinois vs San José State prediction and pick
Our Northern Illinois Huskies at San José State Spartans pick: San José State by 7.3, 67% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 6 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±16.9, so about 51% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ours: San José State by 7.3Northern Illinois win 33%San José State win 67%5649423528211470714212835424956← Northern Illinois win bySan José State win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Northern Illinois win
33.0%
San José State win
67.0%
Middle 50%: Northern Illinois by 4 to San José State by 19
50%
Middle 90%: Northern Illinois by 21 to San José State by 35
90%
Middle 95%: Northern Illinois by 26 to San José State by 41
95%
Exactly San José State by 3
6.4%
Exactly Northern Illinois by 3
5.5%
Exactly San José State by 7
5.3%
Exactly San José State by 14
3.9%
Exactly Northern Illinois by 7
3.7%
P50
Half of games like this end between Northern Illinois by 4 and San José State by 19.
P90
9 in 10 between Northern Illinois by 21 and San José State by 35.
P95
19 in 20 between Northern Illinois by 26 and San José State by 41.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Northern Illinois vs San José State: questions and answers
Who will win Northern Illinois vs San José State?
Our forecast picks San José State, with 67% to win; Northern Illinois win 33% of the time.
What’s the spread for Northern Illinois vs San José State?
Our spread: San José State −7.3. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Northern Illinois vs San José State?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 (kickoff time to be announced), at CEFCU Stadium.
Northern Illinois at 
San José State
