Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025
Louisiana at Troy, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
Troy beat Louisiana 35–23, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10.
Before kickoff Troy was a 68% favorite.
Final
 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 23 |
|---|---|
 Troy Trojans | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +38 Troy lucky · −38 Louisiana
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Louisiana wins 4, Troy wins 6.
- 1 UL 31 TROY 13
- 2 UL 28 TROY 17
- 3 UL 23 TROY 17
- 4 UL 24 TROY 22
- 5 UL 21 TROY 24
- 6 UL 21 TROY 27
- 7 UL 27 TROY 35
- 8 UL 10 TROY 21
- 9 UL 10 TROY 27
- 10 UL 10 TROY 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Louisiana wins 38% of them, Troy 62%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Troy by 12.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Louisiana by 17+ | 6.3% |
| Louisiana by 9–16 | 10.2% |
| Louisiana by 1–8 | 17.3% |
| Level after regulation | 5.0% |
| Troy by 1–8 | 24.3% |
| Troy by 9–16 | 17.7% |
| Troy by 17+ | 19.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Renfroe, 48 yds missed · 59% expected
- T. Sterner, 37 yds made · 77% expected
- T. Sterner, 31 yds made · 85% expected
- T. Sterner, 32 yds made · 84% expected
Penalties: Louisiana 3 for 25 yards, Troy 2 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 14:36 | False Start on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TROY +1.1 pts |
| Q2 13:29 | Personal Foul on Louisiana, 15 yards | +4% TROY +1.6 pts |
| Q2 12:00 | Holding on Troy, 10 yards | +2% UL +0.7 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | False Start on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UL +0.8 pts |
| Q4 9:36 | False Start on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% TROY +0.8 pts |
When it happened
Troy’s chance of winning
As low as 48% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 4:29 | Troy converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +4% TROY | TROY: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q1 1:36 | Louisiana converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +3% UL | UL: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 13:29 | Personal Foul on Louisiana, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% TROY | TROY: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q2 9:42 | Return touchdown by TroySpecial teams | +3% TROY | TROY: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 10:16 | Troy converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +4% TROY | TROY: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 8:52 | Troy converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +4% TROY | TROY: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 9:11 | Louisiana converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +7% UL | UL: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 7:20 | Louisiana was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +3% TROY | UL: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Louisiana 0% · Troy 100%
- Final margin
- Troy by 12
- Luck in points
- 9.5 for Louisiana
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Troy by 21.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Louisiana 38% · Troy 62% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
Louisiana · 
Troy
More from Week 9 2025
- South Alabama at Georgia State USA 38–31 · replay 39% for the winner
- App State at Old Dominion ODU 24–21 · replay 56% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Arkansas State ARST 34–24 · replay 86% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Southern Miss USM 49–21 · replay 99% for the winner
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- BYU at Iowa State BYU 41–27 · replay 26% for the winner
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Auburn at Arkansas AUB 33–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Alabama at South Carolina ALA 29–22 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Oklahoma MISS 34–26 · replay 38% for the winner