Week 9 2025 · October 24, 2025
Boise State at Nevada, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
Boise State beat Nevada 24–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Boise State wins 4 of 10.
Boise State won on an off day: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Nevada it would win 89% of the time; with this day’s form, 45%. The numbers
Before kickoff Boise State was a 91% favorite.
Final
 Boise State Broncos | 24 |
|---|---|
 Nevada Wolf Pack | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +55 Boise State lucky · −55 Nevada
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Boise State wins 4, Nevada wins 6.
- 1 BOIS 44 NEV 24
- 2 BOIS 13 NEV 0
- 3 BOIS 7 NEV 0
- 4 BOIS 10 NEV 7
- 5 BOIS 17 NEV 20
- 6 BOIS 7 NEV 13
- 7 BOIS 14 NEV 23
- 8 BOIS 6 NEV 17
- 9 BOIS 7 NEV 23
- 10 BOIS 0 NEV 23
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Boise State won on an off day
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Nevada it would win 89% of the time; with this day’s form, 45%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
45 points apart for Boise State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boise State offenseEPA per play gained | −0.17 | +0.18 | worse by 0.34 |
| Boise State defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.39 | +0.07 | better by 0.46 |
| Nevada offenseEPA per play gained | −0.39 | +0.05 | worse by 0.44 |
| Nevada defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.17 | +0.10 | better by 0.26 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Boise State wins 45% of them, Nevada 55%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Boise State by 21.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Boise State by 17+ | 8.1% |
| Boise State by 9–16 | 14.1% |
| Boise State by 1–8 | 21.4% |
| Level after regulation | 1.4% |
| Nevada by 1–8 | 25.3% |
| Nevada by 9–16 | 17.6% |
| Nevada by 17+ | 12.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. McFadden, 40 yds made · 74% expected
- C. Boomer, 21 yds made · 94% expected
Penalties: Boise State 2 for 10 yards, Nevada 8 for 71 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:15 | Delay of Game on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NEV +0.2 pts |
| Q1 2:39 | Pass Interference on Nevada, 14 yards | +1% BOIS +0.5 pts |
| Q2 9:31 | Holding on Nevada, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% BOIS +1.6 pts |
| Q2 5:53 | Offside on Nevada, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BOIS +0.3 pts |
| Q2 1:55 | Unnecessary Roughness on Nevada, 2 yards | +1% BOIS +1.9 pts |
| Q2 1:02 | Personal Foul on Nevada, 15 yards | +1% BOIS +1.6 pts |
| Q2 1:02 | False Start on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NEV +1.0 pts |
| Q3 7:24 | Personal Foul on Nevada, 15 yards | +2% BOIS +1.6 pts |
| Q3 1:47 | Offside on Nevada, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% BOIS 0.0 pts |
| Q3 1:41 | Holding on Nevada, 10 yards | 0% BOIS +1.8 pts |
When it happened
Nevada’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:57 | Nevada converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 19% expected | +3% NEV | NEV: End of half |
| 2 | Q1 3:50 | J. McFadden made a 40-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him | +3% BOIS | NEV: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 2:39 | Boise State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedBoise State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedBoise State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedPass Interference on Nevada, 14 yardsJudgment calls | +4% BOIS | BOIS: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 9:31 | Holding on Nevada, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +2% BOIS | BOIS: Turnover |
| 5 | Q3 11:11 | Nevada converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +2% NEV | NEV: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 9:36 | Nevada converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +2% NEV | NEV: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 7:24 | Personal Foul on Nevada, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% BOIS | BOIS: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 5:50 | Boise State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +2% BOIS | BOIS: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Boise State 100% · Nevada 0%
- Final margin
- Boise State by 21
- Luck in points
- 3.7 for Boise State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Boise State by 17.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Boise State 45% · Nevada 55% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
Boise State · 
Nevada
More from Week 9 2025
- Utah State at New Mexico UNM 33–14 · replay 77% for the winner
- Colorado State at Wyoming WYO 28–0 · replay 94% for the winner
- San Diego State at Fresno State SDSU 23–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- BYU at Iowa State BYU 41–27 · replay 26% for the winner
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Auburn at Arkansas AUB 33–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Alabama at South Carolina ALA 29–22 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Oklahoma MISS 34–26 · replay 38% for the winner
- South Alabama at Georgia State USA 38–31 · replay 39% for the winner