Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025
Colorado State at Wyoming, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
Wyoming beat Colorado State 28–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Wyoming wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Wyoming was a 64% favorite.
Final
 Colorado State Rams | 0 |
|---|---|
 Wyoming Cowboys | 28 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Wyoming about even · −6 Colorado State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Colorado State wins 1, Wyoming wins 9.
- 1 CSU 28 WYO 21
- 2 CSU 20 WYO 24
- 3 CSU 23 WYO 34
- 4 CSU 34 WYO 49
- 5 CSU 34 WYO 54
- 6 CSU 27 WYO 51
- 7 CSU 20 WYO 48
- 8 CSU 23 WYO 57
- 9 CSU 17 WYO 56
- 10 CSU 3 WYO 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Colorado State wins 6% of them, Wyoming 94%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Wyoming by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Colorado State by 17+ | 0.5% |
| Colorado State by 9–16 | 1.7% |
| Colorado State by 1–8 | 3.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.9% |
| Wyoming by 1–8 | 8.8% |
| Wyoming by 9–16 | 11.9% |
| Wyoming by 17+ | 72.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Colorado State 7 for 69 yards, Wyoming 7 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:28 | Delay of Game on Colorado State, 1 yard · pre-snap | +1% WYO +0.6 pts |
| Q2 14:08 | Holding on Colorado State, 10 yards | +2% WYO +1.8 pts |
| Q2 9:52 | False Start on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CSU +1.5 pts |
| Q2 9:52 | Illegal Substitution on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CSU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 9:52 | False Start on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CSU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 6:00 | Holding on Colorado State, 10 yards | +1% WYO +0.6 pts |
| Q2 6:00 | Holding on Wyoming, 10 yards | +1% CSU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Pass Interference on Colorado State, 15 yards | 0% WYO +1.0 pts |
| Q2 0:04 | Holding on Wyoming, 10 yards | 0% CSU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 7:28 | False Start on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CSU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 0:56 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Wyoming, 10 yards | 0% CSU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 14:04 | False Start on Colorado State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WYO +1.2 pts |
| Q4 12:16 | Pass Interference on Colorado State, 13 yards | 0% WYO +0.7 pts |
| Q4 5:32 | Personal Foul on Colorado State, 15 yards | 0% WYO +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Wyoming’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 15:00 | Wyoming was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +2% CSU | WYO: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:01 | Colorado State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +3% WYO | CSU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 9:28 | Wyoming was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expectedWyoming converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedWyoming converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expectedDelay of Game on Colorado State, 1 yardPre-snap flags | +5% WYO | WYO: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 2:43 | Wyoming converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +3% WYO | WYO: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 1:52 | Wyoming converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +2% WYO | WYO: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 14:08 | Colorado State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expectedColorado State was stopped on 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 15% expectedHolding on Colorado State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +2% CSU | CSU: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 9:52 | Wyoming converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedWyoming was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedFalse Start on Wyoming, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsIllegal Substitution on Wyoming, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsFalse Start on Wyoming, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% CSU | WYO: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 2:00 | Wyoming fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Pass Interference on Colorado State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% WYO | WYO: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Colorado State 0% · Wyoming 100%
- Final margin
- Wyoming by 28
- Luck in points
- 1.6 for Colorado State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Wyoming by 29.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Colorado State 6% · Wyoming 94% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
Colorado State · 
Wyoming
More from Week 9 2025
- Boise State at Nevada BOIS 24–3 · replay 45% for the winner
- Utah State at New Mexico UNM 33–14 · replay 77% for the winner
- San Diego State at Fresno State SDSU 23–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- BYU at Iowa State BYU 41–27 · replay 26% for the winner
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Auburn at Arkansas AUB 33–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Alabama at South Carolina ALA 29–22 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Oklahoma MISS 34–26 · replay 38% for the winner
- South Alabama at Georgia State USA 38–31 · replay 39% for the winner