Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
Kent State at South Carolina, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
South Carolina beat Kent State 57–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, South Carolina wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff South Carolina was a 99% favorite.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 South Carolina about even · 0 Kent State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Kent State wins 0, South Carolina wins 10.
- 1 KENT 23 SC 35
- 2 KENT 13 SC 35
- 3 KENT 17 SC 44
- 4 KENT 7 SC 38
- 5 KENT 7 SC 42
- 6 KENT 17 SC 55
- 7 KENT 3 SC 45
- 8 KENT 3 SC 49
- 9 KENT 0 SC 49
- 10 KENT 0 SC 56
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Kent State wins 0% of them, South Carolina 100%. The line is what actually happened: South Carolina by 57.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Kent State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Kent State by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Kent State by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| South Carolina by 1–8 | 0.8% |
| South Carolina by 9–16 | 1.6% |
| South Carolina by 17+ | 97.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
Penalties: Kent State 5 for 35 yards, South Carolina 3 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:55 | False Start on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% KENT +0.4 pts |
| Q1 8:37 | Roughing the Passer on South Carolina, 15 yards | 0% KENT +1.1 pts |
| Q2 13:39 | Pass Interference on Kent State, 15 yards | 0% SC +0.8 pts |
| Q2 10:14 | False Start on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SC +0.9 pts |
| Q2 6:45 | Illegal Substitution on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SC +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:44 | False Start on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% KENT +0.8 pts |
| Q2 0:54 | False Start on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SC +0.3 pts |
| Q4 1:16 | False Start on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SC +0.2 pts |
When it happened
South Carolina’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:55 | Kent State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +0% KENT | KENT: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 12:12 | Kent State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +0% SC | KENT: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 10:23 | South Carolina converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +0% SC | SC: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 9:16 | South Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +0% KENT | SC: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 8:37 | Roughing the Passer on South Carolina, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% KENT | KENT: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 2:37 | Kent State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +0% KENT | KENT: Punt |
| 7 | Q1 0:51 | Kent State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +0% SC | KENT: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 12:41 | South Carolina converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedSouth Carolina’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +0% SC | SC: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Kent State 0% · South Carolina 100%
- Final margin
- South Carolina by 57
- Luck in points
- 11.0 for South Carolina
- Luck-adjusted margin
- South Carolina by 46.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Kent State 0% · South Carolina 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Kent State · 
South Carolina
More from Week 1 2026
- Toledo at Michigan State MSU 30–20 · replay 49% for the winner
- Louisville vs Ole Miss MISS 41–38 · replay 57% for the winner
- San José State at Eastern Michigan SJSU 27–21 · replay 65% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Rutgers MASS 37–21 · replay 74% for the winner
- Tarleton State at Bowling Green TAR 20–13 · replay 77% for the winner
- UAlbany at Buffalo BUF 21–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Baylor vs Auburn AUB 17–16 · replay 82% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Michigan MICH 13–12 · replay 86% for the winner
- Akron at Wake Forest WAKE 38–16 · replay 92% for the winner
- Ohio at Nebraska NEB 49–21 · replay 93% for the winner
- Austin Peay at Vanderbilt VAN 28–9 · replay 95% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh PITT 59–14 · replay 96% for the winner