luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

College football · Week 10 2026 · Saturday, November 7

Texas A&M vs South Carolina prediction and pick

Our Texas A&M Aggies at South Carolina Gamecocks pick: Texas A&M by 4.0, 59% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.

An early look, 6 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.

Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±16.9, so about 51% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.

Texas A&M at South Carolina

Sat, Nov 7, time to be announced · Williams-Brice Stadium

Texas A&M by 4.0 · 59% to win

Show as a table
OutcomeChance
Texas A&M win59.4%
South Carolina win40.6%
Middle 50%: Texas A&M by 15 to South Carolina by 750%
Middle 90%: Texas A&M by 32 to South Carolina by 2490%
Middle 95%: Texas A&M by 37 to South Carolina by 2995%
Exactly Texas A&M by 36.6%
Exactly South Carolina by 36.1%
Exactly Texas A&M by 75.3%
Exactly South Carolina by 74.3%
Exactly Texas A&M by 143.5%
P50
Half of games like this end between Texas A&M by 15 and South Carolina by 7.
P90
9 in 10 between Texas A&M by 32 and South Carolina by 24.
P95
19 in 20 between Texas A&M by 37 and South Carolina by 29.
Where the forecast comes from
Last seasonTexas A&M+7.2
Home fieldSouth Carolina+3.1
This season, against its opponentsSouth Carolina+0.1

The season so far

TeamRecordCoin-flip winsLuck in wins
Texas A&M 2–2 2.0 +0.3
South Carolina 2–2 2.0 −0.3

Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.

Texas A&M vs South Carolina: questions and answers

Who will win Texas A&M vs South Carolina?

Our forecast picks Texas A&M, with 59% to win; South Carolina win 41% of the time.

What’s the spread for Texas A&M vs South Carolina?

Our spread: Texas A&M −4.0. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.

When is Texas A&M vs South Carolina?

Saturday, November 7, 2026 (kickoff time to be announced), at Williams-Brice Stadium.